Best In Wealth Podcast

How Data, Discipline, and Human Ingenuity Shape Long-Term Wealth, Ep #267

In a world where gut instinct once ruled the day—from football coaches making pivotal fourth-down decisions to investors choosing their next stock pick—a revolution has reshaped the landscape: reliable data and analytics. Drawing inspiration from the principles behind the film Moneyball and a recent article by David Booth on 3 Lessons from Investing’s Moneyball Moment in Fortune magazine, I break down what a century of US stock market history reveals for everyday investors. Lesson 1. Insiders Aren’t Smarter Than Outsiders One of the key insights unearthed from this century’s worth of data is simple but profound: experts, or “insiders,” don’t consistently outperform the market. Early research using the University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) data found that, on average, mutual funds and clever stock pickers failed to beat the simple strategy of buying and holding a diversified market portfolio.  This led to the explosion of index funds, notably pioneered by Vanguard and enabled by firms like Dimensional. Now, anyone, not just Wall Street professionals, can own broad, low-cost portfolios and harness the long-term growth of the entire market rather than trying (and in most cases, failing) to outsmart it. Lesson 2. Bet on Human Ingenuity Human creativity and progress power the market’s reliable returns over the decades. Companies go public to raise money, which they funnel into improving their products and expanding their reach. Every day, millions of people at thousands of companies are seeking better ways to serve their customers and grow profits. When you invest in the stock market, you’re ultimately betting on people’s ability to innovate and adapt to a changing world. This century-long experiment in collective growth has consistently delivered average returns of around 10% per year, a number that’s survived wars, recessions, inflation spikes, and bubbles. Lesson 3. Investor Behavior Is Key If reams of data tell us anything, it’s this: reliable, long-term returns belong to disciplined investors. The journey is never smooth—market downturns feel chaotic and alarming in the moment. Yet, $1,000 invested in 1926 would have grown to over $17 million by 2025, despite wars, crashes, and global crises. Most investors who stuck with the market over any 10- or 20-year span came out ahead. Stay disciplined, trust the data, and know that while the challenges may look different, the power of long-term, patient investing is timeless. Outline of This Episode [00:00] 100 years of market insights[03:14] Football transformed by data analytics[07:32] Moneyball, markets, and data[11:06] Insiders vs. outsiders on stocks[16:17] Human ingenuity in investing[17:26] Investing discipline drives long-term success Resources Mentioned Moneyball Synopsis 3 lessons from investing’s moneyball moment in Fortune University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP)  Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Are We in an AI Bubble? And What That Means for Investors, Ep #266

Investors have short memories—until the talk of a “bubble” resurfaces. We take investors on a quick trip down memory lane, discussing the infamous dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s and early 2000s, as well as the housing bubbled that appeared a few years later. These bubbles were fueled by sky-high optimism and wild speculation about transformative technologies. In the dot-com era, investors rushed into any company with a “.com” at the end of its name, confident the internet would change the world. But not all of these companies survived. The lesson is that when a game-changing technology, or a new technology appears, you still have to do your due diligence to come out on top. The Age of AI: Bubble or Breakthrough? The “Magnificent Seven” (Google, Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft) are pouring billions into AI. Their 2025 returns, as catalogued by Scott Wellens, were impressive, with the group averaging over 20%, outperforming the S&P 500. Yet, such meteoric rises echo the euphoria of past bubbles. But excitement alone does not make a bubble—overvaluation does. Valuation: How Expensive is Too Expensive? A key measure is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a classic way to judge if a company’s stock price is justified by its profits. Take Tesla, for example: at the end of 2025, it traded at roughly $450 per share but earned only $1.50 per share, putting its P/E near 304. Compared to Toyota’s P/E of about 10, that is nosebleed territory. The S&P 500’s long-term average P/E sits around 20—a point of reference emphasizing just how stretched AI-heavy stocks may be. The Magnificent Seven’s average P/E now hovers around 68, more than triple the broader market’s historic average and well above the S&P’s “other 493” companies. While high valuations do not guarantee a crash, they signal that expectations are sky-high and that disappointment could be costly. Picking Winners, Dodging Losers You cannot invest in AI itself; you invest in companies riding the AI wave. History shows many will not make it. That is why betting everything on a few horses is extremely risky, even if their role in AI seems promising today. Over-concentration lurks as a hidden threat. If you own a standard S&P 500 index fund, 35% of your portfolio sits in the Magnificent Seven. For tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, that figure climbs to 54%. A stumble for these stars—already started in early 2025—can spell big trouble for portfolios tied too closely to their fortunes. The Case for Global Diversification So how can investors harness AI’s upside without exposing themselves to catastrophic risk? In a portfolio spanning thousands of companies worldwide across different sectors and asset classes, your exposure to the Magnificent Seven (and thus to AI) drops to about 20%. This cushions your wealth from the fallout if today’s leaders falter and gives you a stake in the next wave of winners, wherever they arise. This approach also positions you to benefit from asset classes that look attractive in the current environment. Small-cap and value stocks, as well as international and emerging markets, which are currently trading at lower valuations and are performing well. History shows that asset classes cycle in and out of favor. Diversification helps you ride out the storms and participate in future growth, whatever sector it comes from. Nobody can say with certainty whether we are flying high in an AI bubble or witnessing the birth of the next economic revolution. Instead of gambling on a forecast, smart investors build durable, globally diversified portfolios. That way, you are not only prepared for the promise of AI but also protected from the possibility of another bubble burst. Outline of This Episode [03:59] How bubbles in investing have formed in the past[05:09] The largest 7 companies in the United States believe that AI is the future[06:59] What price-to-earnings ratios reveal about AI-focused companies[10:18] Toyota vs. Tesla: An example valuation comparison[13:10] Should you invest in companies that use AI?[15:07] An S&P 500-only portfolio is not diversified[20:54] Diversify globally for the best chance of financial success Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Why Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Human Wisdom with Your Finances, Ep #265

AI is everywhere, from investing apps and portfolio tools to recipe planners and vacation organizers, artificial intelligence touches countless corners of our lives. In finance, AI promises accessibility. For newer investors, it is a way to learn basic concepts, compare traditional and Roth IRAs, or understand the difference between tax brackets, all delivered in plain English. AI is also a huge help with organization and financial efficiency. Need a budgeting framework or quick ways to categorize cash flow? AI can create those. It is a handy pocket assistant that helps you plan and ask sharper questions when evaluating financial advisors or planning your future. The Real Limitations of AI in Financial Planning While AI is a powerful tool, it is not a decision maker. Here are the big dangers and drawbacks you need to keep in mind: 1. Zero Personal Accountability AI does not bear the consequences of its advice. If it suggests an irreversible move, like a Roth IRA conversion, based on incomplete or incorrect information, the cost falls entirely on you. 2. Overconfidence in Precision AI delivers advice with absolute confidence, even when it is wrong! Financial planning is not just numbers, it is trade-offs, nuances, and judgment calls that factor in health, family dynamics, and personal emotional risk tolerance. 3. Struggles with Multi-Year Tax Planning Most AI tools treat tax decisions generically just one year at a time. But real retirement tax planning means looking ahead 10, 15, or 20 years. Missed integration here can cost you tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars over a career or lifetime. 4. One-Dimensional Investment Advice AI assumes perfect discipline and zero life changes, no panic selling, no sudden need for funds. But human emotion, especially during retirement or volatile markets, often drives decisions. 5. False Sense of Security AI’s confident answers may mask underlying complexity. A small financial misstep, repeated or compounded over decades, can grow into a massive problem down the road. 6. Lack of Behavioral Guardrails Emotions play a huge role in retirement and investment decisions. Life throws curveballs—loss, illness, market downturns, and AI cannot reframe your fears or keep you disciplined when things get tough. When Human Wisdom Matters Most Retirement planning is not about finding simple answers, information is cheap, wisdom is not. For complex questions, AI offers basic options, but it cannot weigh the sequence of return risk, or policy changes in real time, like a qualified advisor can. Human advisors coordinate, prioritize, and apply experience to your financial life. They support you through market cycles, health challenges, and family transitions, and recognize when purely rational advice does not capture your real needs. Using AI Wisely My advice is to use AI for learning and organization, not for important, irreversible lifestyle and tax decisions. Always double-check its work, and do not outsource your financial future entirely to algorithms. Technology plus human judgment delivers the best outcomes. AI is a powerful tool, not a complete solution. Outline of This Episode 02:24 Best in Wealth Podcast future plans.03:57 AI in daily life and finance.04:51 Advantages of AI for do-it-yourself (DIY) investors.08:08 Using AI for financial information.12:29 Limitations and dangers of AI in financial planning.16:57 Limits of AI financial planning.19:30 No behavioral guardrails when it comes to your taxes.25:43 If a decision affects your lifestyle for the rest of your life, don't outsource it to AI. Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

The Most Important Changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Explained, Ep #264

Tax laws may not be flashy, but understanding them can tilt the balance for your family’s finances and peace of mind. I am digging into the details of the much-talked-about “One Big Beautiful Tax Bill”, a huge piece of tax legislation that is set to impact families, retirees, and investors across the country. I break down the most important highlights from the massive 870-page bill, focusing on what really matters for everyday listeners: permanent income tax brackets, bigger standard deductions, expanded SALT limits, and significant new deductions for seniors.  Tune in for clear, actionable insights on the changes coming to your taxes, and learn how to make these updates work in your favor. Outline of This Episode [04:27] Tax act extension highlights.[07:22] Inflation adjustment for tax brackets.[10:38] Tax deduction and SALT cap changes.[13:23] Maximize your deductions and minimize taxable income.[18:53] Estate tax and deductions update.[22:08] Permanent deductions and brackets.[23:45] Tax benefits for families. Tax Brackets and Standard Deduction: More Certainty, Bigger Benefits One of the most interesting aspects of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is the permanent extension of the income tax brackets Americans have become accustomed to since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. Instead of the cliff that was looming at the end of 2024, current rates (10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%) are now here to stay. This certainty means families, investors, and business owners can plan with clarity, knowing that the 10% and 12% brackets will not suddenly vanish. But there’s more: in 2026, the 10% and 12% brackets will receive extra inflation adjustments, leading to a few hundred dollars of potential tax savings. While many American households may not climb out of the 12% bracket, those who do will benefit even more. Another major win is the increase in the standard deduction, now $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for single filers, starting in 2025. Add in automatic inflation adjustments, and the vast majority of taxpayers are now better off taking the standard deduction rather than itemizing, unless big deductions, like SALT, tilt the scale. The Expanded SALT Deduction Under OBBB, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap explodes from $10,000 to $40,000, restoring much of the pre-2017 advantage. For married couples with large property and state income taxes, this unlocks greater ability to itemize rather than default to the standard deduction. But this expanded cap begins phasing out for adjusted gross incomes above $500,000 and is gone by $600,000. Smart, ongoing tax planning, tracking income, maximizing deductions, and timing bonuses or retirement contributions can make the difference between using the full deduction or losing out. Enhanced Deductions for Those 65+ For retirees, the bill introduces a temporary enhanced standard deduction: if you are over 65, you can deduct an additional $6,000 per person (that’s $12,000 for a married couple) in 2025-2028, on top of other standard deductions. It is available whether you itemize or not. This deduction is phased out for higher incomes—starting at $150,000 for married couples. For planners and retirees considering Roth conversions or IRA withdrawals, being strategic about income in these years could mean paying zero tax on a significant chunk of retirement income. Child Tax Credit and Estate Tax Changes Families will be happy to hear that the expanded Child Tax Credit is now permanent. It not only remains at $2,000, but is increased to $2,200 per qualifying child under 18, and (for the first time) will be indexed for inflation from 2026 onward. Income phaseouts apply, but most middle-class families can continue to count on this boost. Lifetime estate and gift tax exemption is set high, $30 million for married couples, $15 million for singles, through 2026, giving ultra-high-net-worth families greater latitude in legacy planning. Resources Mentioned One Big Beautiful Bill Act  Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice. Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Balancing US and International Stocks to Diversify Your Investments, Ep #263

Most investors have been ignoring international stocks lately because the US market has been performing so well—but that strategy might backfire this year, with international markets significantly outpacing American stocks. In this episode, I dive into why diversifying globally is not just smart investing; it is essential for long-term wealth building. We explore how the US currently dominates 61% of world market capitalization, but history shows this was not always the case—and it will not necessarily continue. I share four key reasons international investing should be part of your portfolio: it reduces geographic risk when any one country hits turbulence, gives you access to high-growth emerging markets that have delivered spectacular returns, protects you through currency diversification, and helps overcome the natural tendency to only invest in familiar companies. The numbers tell a compelling story—while the S&P 500 is up around 12% this year, international developed markets are up nearly 30%, and some individual countries have delivered returns of 50-90% in recent years. Whether you are completely US-focused or wondering how much international exposure makes sense for your situation, this episode provides the data and reasoning you need to build a more resilient, globally diversified portfolio. I also touch on an interesting parallel between portfolio diversification and gut health—turns out both benefit from variety and balance. Outline of This Episode [01:12] The importance of the gut microbiome for health.[03:42] International markets surpass US performance right now.[06:24] International diversification mitigates geographic risk.[10:25] A globally diversified portfolio balances volatility and gives opportunity for growth.[13:49] Invest internationally to protect against domestic currency depreciation.[15:13] Why to overcome a behavioral home country bias.[17:06] Review your health and financial diversification. Building a healthier, more resilient investment portfolio. Broadening your approach—whether it is what you eat or where you invest—can improve your long-term outcomes. Did you know that we all have an ecosystem of microbes living within our intestines? Science increasingly shows that a highly diverse gut microbiome is linked to better health, well-being, and more healthy years well into old age. A thriving gut health requires at least 30 different types of plant-based foods each week. The greater the diversity, the more kinds of helpful bacteria can flourish, supporting everything from digestion to immunity. Just as variety improves gut health, diversity is equally essential in investing. Many Americans have opted to remove international stocks from their portfolios, citing the recent dominance of U.S. markets. I want to push back on this trend, with these important points: The Shifting Sands of Market Dominance: As of early 2024, U.S. markets make up approximately 61% of the world’s capitalization. The next-largest market, Japan, accounts for only 6%. While the U.S. is dominant now, this was not always the case. In the 1990s, Japan claimed over 40% of the world’s market cap, while the U.S. plunged to just 25%. History tells us that leadership rotates—sometimes rapidly. International Outperformance: Many investors overlook periods where international markets outperformed the U.S. For example, in recent years, Hungary, Turkey, and the Czech Republic each posted eye-popping returns, outpacing the U.S. significantly. Four Reasons You Need International Investments If you are still not convinced, here are some really good reasons for including global assets in your portfolio: 1. Broader Diversification: Global investing reduces the impact of a downturn in any single country—you will not suffer as heavily if one economy stumbles. It also balances your exposure through different economic and market cycles, smoothing out volatility and lowering overall risk. 2. Access to Unique Growth Opportunities: Emerging markets and diverse sectors abroad can offer higher growth potential. Limiting yourself to U.S. stocks means missing out on global brands such as Toyota, Nestlé, and Samsung, as well as entire sectors less represented in America. 3. Currency Diversification: International investments provide natural protection against swings in the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens, non-dollar holdings often become more valuable, helping to preserve your purchasing power and hedge against domestic inflation. 4. Overcoming Home-Country Bias: Many investors naturally stick to what they know (sound familiar?). But with 40% of global investment opportunities outside the U.S., choosing not to invest abroad means intentionally missing out on nearly half the world’s growth potential. Diversify Diet and Dollars I want to encourage you to review your own portfolio for international exposure. Start by checking what percentage is allocated overseas and ask—does this reflect your long-term interests, or just recent trends? Talk with your financial advisor to find a balance that suits your family’s goals. And remember: whether it is your gut or your investments, variety really is the spice of (a healthy, resilient) life. Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com