AIB Market Talk

Central Banks in Focus: ECB Holds, Fed Cuts

As global markets brace for pivotal central bank decisions, this episode dives into the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a potential rate cut could signal a shift in U.S. monetary policy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank holds steady, opting to keep rates unchanged despite persistent inflation concerns. What do these diverging strategies mean for investors, businesses, and the broader economy? Join our Chief Economist, David McNamara, and Sarah McGinley from our Treasury team, as they unpack the implications, explore market reactions, and discuss what’s next for global financial markets.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

From Surge to Slowdown

AIB’S Chief Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury’s Jason Rehill review the August Irish PMI surveys, discussing strong growth for the manufacturing sector with employment continuing to increase and trade to the US surging. There’s a review of slowing service sector activities, while employment rates continuing to fall. There’s an examination of the slowdown in the Irish economy following rapid growth, and finally the sense of global economic uncertainty flowing from the impact of tariffs.  Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Is the US Economy Running out of Steam?

In this week’s Market Talk podcast, AIB’s Senior Economist, John Fahey, and AIB Treasury’s Jane Kavanagh, discuss volatility in the financial markets. They also review central bank activity, considering the outlook for interest rates for the second half of 2025 and discuss the impact of tariffs on inflation. The team also looks at the currency markets, with the euro gaining against the dollar for first time this year. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Tariff Talk & Markets Move

AIB’s Chief Economist, David McNamara, and AIB Treasury’s Sarah McGinley review the latest Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys. They show the manufacturing sector grew in July, with pharma exports on the increase. While the services sector showed weakening trends in transport, tourism and leisure, with a fall in activity impacting weak employment growth. The discussion also looks at the impact of tariff deals globally and how tariffs are impacting the US economy.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Dollar Regaining Momentum

AIB’s Senior Economist John Fahey and AIB Treasury’s Mark McKevitt discuss the current finance markets, the future impact of tariffs, the recent changes in sterling with Bank of England rate cuts, and central bank rates with no changes in the ECB and US Fed.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2