Hormuz, Black Sea, and COVID disruption: Commodity contracts and force majeure in transition

When US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s supreme leader in February 2026, sparking an Iranian retaliation on US allies in the Middle East, many assumed this would be yet another flash in the pan in the increasingly volatile region. 

Six months on, conflict endures, proving more resilient and disruptive than anyone had bargained for, rerouting shipping routes and heightening concerns about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in oil transport. With global attention for conflict gravitating towards the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is being considered in global commodity flows less and less. Nonetheless, recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports in the Black Sea, just a few thousand miles away, significantly exacerbate the global energy crisis.