Episode 25: General election forecast; prospects for M1 constituencies

In this episode, we discuss with former Cllr Killian Forde the election coming this Friday and what we can expect in the M1 constituencies.

Podcast will be uploaded before Wednesday.

We have forecasts for Fingal East, Fingal West, Meath East and Louth.

Listen in for the discussion and why these are my tips for the M1 constituencies for #Election2024. We discuss the campaign and the mood of the electorate and positioning of parties and independents and we discuss with particular regards to the four M1 constituencies.

Having studied the form, we concluded that elections favour the incumbent and by and large, we should expect no change this election. Expect sitting TD’s standing for election to get re- elected. The Greens will suffer for their role as the smaller party in government.

Participation in party politics has declined over the years and this year we see lacklustre campaigns. Candidates have been slow to get their posters up and big canvass teams are not being seen out and about. With low level activity, expect low level turnout and in terms of government, expect more of the same.

This Saturday, watch out for the performances of Aontu and Labour. Peadar Tobin TD has been an impressive communicator and has 43 candidates around the country. Aontu are trying to do what the Socialist Party did previously with just a party of on TD Joe Higgins. From 1997, Joe Higgins was the Socialist Party TD and they aimed to grow a party to the left of Labour. Can Peadar Tobin build something more durable than what the Socialist Party managed to achieve with the tenure of Joe Higgins TD?

The Socialist Party actually created 6 TDs over time but they are in different factions. Clare Daly joined Joe in the Dail in 2011 but left the Socialist Party in 2012. Joan Collins TD was a Socialist Party member for 20 years prior to being elected as an Independent Cllr in 2004. Paul Murphy TD was elected for the Socialist Party in 2014 but defected to being Independent and then People Before Profit, while Mick Barry and Ruth Coppinger were decades with the Militant and Socialist Party. Peadar Tobin is trying to replicate his base with a wider party base with other TDs for Aontu.

Killian suggests Labour is a dying brand and has lost its focus and could in fact face wipe out. Social Democrats may hold what they have and while expected to pick up seats, it is unclear where that could happen. One possibility is Cork East with Liam Quaid and in that case, it would be Soc Dems gain at Labour expense.

The government vote will hold up where in Meath East, we can expect Fine Gael to go from one to two seats and in Louth, it might be that, given the Senator John Mc Gahon punch up story, that Fianna Fail will win two seats.

In Fingal East, the third seat is a toss up with Duncan Smith, Joan Hopkins and Dean Mulligan in the mix, while in Fingal West, we perceive Sinn Fein’s Louise O’ Reilly as being more certain and that time in the Seanad and full time politics will stand to Lorraine Clifford Lee perhaps, over Grace Boland of Fine Gael family dynasty.

In terms of watching out for Aontu, Meath East is a bell weather constituency. Peadar Tobin’s wife Emer Tobin is their candidate and if they can’t win here, they will struggle elsewhere. Here’s our tips.

– Fingal East;

Garrett’s Tip Darragh O Brien (FF), Alan Farrell (FG) and one of Duncan Smith (Lab), Joan Hopkins (Soc Dem) or Dean Mulligan (Ind)

Killian’s tip- Darragh O’ Brien, Alan Farrell and Dean Mulligan

(15 candidates)

– Fingal West;

Garrett’s tip- Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF), Louise O Reilly (SF), Rob O Donoghoe (Lab)

Killian’s tip- Lorraine Clifford Lee, Grace Boland, Louise O’ Reilly

(12 candidates)

– Meath Wast; Tip Darren O’ Rourke (SF), Helen Mc Entee (FG), Thomas Byrne (FG), Sharon Tolan (FG)

Killian’s tip- Darren O’ Rourke, Helen Mc Entee, Thomas Byrne and Emer Tobin (Aontu)

(18 candidates)

– Louth: 3/5 current TDs are retiring Fergus O Dowd (FG), Imelda Munster (SF), Peter Fitzpatrick (Ind)

Tip: Ruairí Ó Murchú (SF), Ged Nash (Lab), Kevin Callan (Ind), Erin Mc Geehan (FF), Alison Comyn (FF)

Killian’s tip- Ruairí Ó Murchú, Erin Mc Geehan, Ged Nash, Kevin Callan, Paula Butterly (FG)

(24 candidates)