$NATL and the sunset of ATMs with Undervalued and Undercovered’s Hugo Navarro

Hugo Navarro of Undervalued and Undercovered discusses NCR Atlas (NATL), a company operating at the intersection of legacy cash infrastructure and modern outsourcing economics. The conversation centers on whether ATMs represent a declining business or a misunderstood opportunity, unpacking NCR Atlas’s valuation, free cash flow profile, and competitive positioning within a duopoly market. Hugo outlines the company’s ATM-as-a-service strategy, highlighting scale advantages, incremental margins, and incentives for banks to outsource servicing.

See Hugo's NATL write up here: https://smallcaptreasures.substack.com/p/a-127-fcf-yielding-duopoly-growing?utm_source=publication-search

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:04:01] NCR Atlas business overview

[00:05:27] Why valuation appears cheap

[00:07:05] Cash usage decline debate

[00:12:55] ATM-as-a-service thesis

[00:16:54] ATM replacement cycle explained

[00:19:15] Industry scale and servicing

[00:20:56] Why banks outsource ATMs

[00:24:07] Incremental margin economics

[00:26:37] Long-term ATM demand risks

[00:35:51] Declining industry outsourcing logic

[00:38:34] Free cash flow drivers

[00:41:11] Share gains from banks

[00:47:36] Accounting and governance concerns

[00:53:22] Diebold competitive comparison

[00:56:04] Tariffs and guidance outlook

[00:57:33] Interest rate sensitivity

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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/