Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on worst case scenario for NZ economy from Iran War

2026-03-16

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Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war. It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult. ...

Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.

It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult.

He says other spikes in oil prices have led to higher inflation - but this will all depend on how long the conflict lasts.

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