Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession.
Links:
https://www.axoniccap.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/
0:00 Intro
0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp
2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession
4:19 American consumer
5:31 Equity markets
8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing
15:43 Vulnerabilities
18:08 Zombie companies
22:37 Fed outlook
26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation
27:50 Long and variable lags question
#172 John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, Causes Of Inflation, And The Need To Stop Throwing Money Down Trillion-dollar Rat Holes
#171 Dave Friedberg, CEO Of Ohala And Co-Host of The All-In Podcast, On The New Breakthrough Can Boost Crop Yields By 50-100% And Could Change Farming Forever
#170 Bob Elliott: The Biggest Risk For Equity Investors Is The Economy Remains Too Strong
#169 Carol Roth: The Stagflationary Economy Is Making A Resurgence
#168 The ‘Acid Capitalist’ Hugh Hendry On The Fed’s No-Win Situation, The Fragility Of Valuations, Gold As ‘The Alchemy Of Chaos,’ Buying Bitcoin, And The Dangerous Sign The Japanese Yen Is
#167 Michael Pento: If Rates Don't Come Down Across The Yield Curve Relatively Quickly, The Economy's In For Big Trouble
#166 Nancy Davis: 'Whatever They Say, The Opposite Happens' — Fed Meeting Reaction, Why Inflation Is Here To Stay, And The Opportunity For Investors
#165 Jim Bianco On Stickier Inflation, A 10-20% Chance Of A Rate Hike, And Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Surge To 5-5.5%
#164 Chris Whalen On Higher Interest Rates, Illiquidity, And The Death Of Leverage
#163 Professor Scott Galloway: We're Turning Into Something That's Not Very American
#162 Keith Fitz-Gerald, Investor Who Nailed 2023 Market Rally, Says The Fed Doesn’t Matter — Investing In Optimism Does
#161 Michael Howell On Global Liquidity, A Re-entry Point For Risk Assets, Monetary Inflation, Gold, The US Dollar
#160 Bill Fleckenstein: The Fed Is Trapped And Unable To Fight Inflation
#159 Lyn Alden On Fiscal Dominance Macro Backdrop, Why The Rise In Gold Is Indicative Of Fiscal Problems, And Why Bitcoin Could Hit Six-Figures In This Cycle
#158 Larry McDonald: We’re Entering A Sustained Inflation Regime, Why Trillions Of Dollars Are Currently Misallocated, And The Opportunity Right Now In Hard Assets
#157 Dr. Gary Shilling On The Hidden Flaws In The Economy
#156 Tom McClellan On Why The Recession Is Still Coming And Why The Second Half Of 2024 Could Be Unpleasant For Stocks
#155 Meredith Whitney On The 'Bifurcated' Economy And Consumer, Why It Will 'Pay To Be Patient' For Young Homebuyers, And The Coming 'Silver Tsunami'
#154 Dr. Art Laffer: We Are In The Middle Of A Massive Redistribution Revolution And It's Destroying Growth
#153 Amy Nixon On Inflation Running Hot And Pivoting On The Deflationary Recession Call
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