What Bitcoin Did with Peter McCormack
Business:Investing
“We know where we are in the debt cycle, we know where we are with energy. And so then it comes down to the key points: when there is tension in the market, when there’s volatility in treasuries - okay, we’ve come to a point: they either have to let the debt default, or they have to print. The chance that they’re going to let it default is like zero.”
— Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT). In this interview, we discuss how governments can navigate the first busting global debt bubble in 100 years. We talk about historical precedents: namely the Weimar Republic in the 1930s and Israel in the 1980s, and how governments may be forced to allow for a compressed period of triple-digit inflation.
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Israel in the mid-1980s faced an existential economic crisis. After a decade of stagnation and rising government expenditure fuelled by money printing, commercial banks started to buckle. Further, the inflation rate was skyrocketing. In 1979 it had reached 111%. By 1984 it had grown to 450%, with fears it could exceed 1,000% by the end of 1985.
Despite the real risk that the sovereign debt bubble may soon burst leading to unprecedented levels of inflation, those in the west have become inured to a belief that very high rates of inflation only happen in developing countries. And yet, the experience of hyperinflation in an advanced democratic country was felt much more recently than most people think. It is important therefore to consider the lessons from Israel’s inflationary crisis of the 1980s.
The policies enacted by Israel to mitigate the situation were socially bruising. Markets were liberalised, government spending was significantly cut, wages were controlled, the Shekel was sharply devalued, and interest rates were raised to punitive levels. The result was a recession in the 1990s with high unemployment. But inflation was tamed. And Israel did not fail as a state.
Nevertheless, the taming of inflation in Israel benefited from various fortuitous factors: high levels of cheap immigrant labour, the technology boom, and the peace process opening up new markets. There aren’t any such obvious pressure-release valves for the west. Furthermore, will those in the West feel as culturally tied to their home nation to stick through such periods of pain?
In essence, is Israel a useful case study, or a distracting aside? We may hope it's the former. Otherwise, we may be entering a period for which the precedent goes back to the 1920s Weimar Republic. Or, even more worryingly, we may experience a crisis for which there is no historical precedent. Prepare accordingly.
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What Bitcoin stands for and should be is a debate that has been raging since 2009. Bitcoin’s unique characteristics have drawn many people into its gravity. The realisation that its immaculate conception may never be replicated has resulted in many of those same people guarding Bitcoin’s development with uncompromising zeal.
The result has been the rise of Bitcoin Maximalism. Maximalist ideology can be a fuzzy concept: there are no clearly agreed rules or principles; there have been various iterations with different priorities over time. However, it is clearly characterised by conservatism over the development of the protocol, and intolerance for those with differing attitudes.
Nevertheless, that is not to say that Bitcoin development can forever remain in stasis. There are and have been pressures requiring upgrades both to the base layer, and in the development of additional layers. This means there is always a creative tension on what changes are required, and how quickly these need to be implemented.
Further, as Bitcoin has no leader, it has engendered an ecosystem where advocates organically emerge, who can gain traction and have an outsized influence on the community. This creates further tensions as Bitcoin’s purpose is being proselytized using competing and sometimes muddied beliefs.
Thus, it is important that Bitcoiners enable an open dialogue where all ideas are questioned, scrutinized and tested. And such debates should be open to all Bitcoiners, without fear or favour to any powerful interests. Is the question therefore how intolerant we should be of those with differing views? And, can we live without trolling, or is this a necessary defensive tool?
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This episode’s sponsors:
Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably
Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantly
Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlers
Bitcasino - The Future of Gaming is here
Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware wallet
Wasabi Wallet - Privacy by default
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WBD646 - Show Notes
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