Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings. This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something....
Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings.
This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something.
Nah.
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In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, recorded on 2 July 2026, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take a wide-ranging look at the political, economic and sporting stories shaping Australia and the world.
The episode opens with Australia’s housing market, including recent house price falls, the risks facing first home buyers using the 5 per cent deposit scheme, and the dangers of negative equity. The Jacks then turn to the striking rise of One Nation, debating whether the surge is a genuine long-term disruption in Australian politics or partly a mirage fuelled by social media, disinformation and dissatisfaction with the major parties.
Victorian politics comes under close scrutiny, with discussion of Moira Deeming, the Matthew Guy allegation, Jess Wilson’s leadership, and Jacinta Allan’s handling of the Big Build controversies. Internationally, the episode covers Andy Burnham’s likely move into Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s defence spending announcement, Trump-era decision-making as explored in Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman’s book, congressional stock trading in the United States, and the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.
The show wraps with sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement from international cricket, England’s reckless loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another World Cup final.
00:00:25 — Welcome to Episode 163
Jack the Insider opens the show and marks the start of the new financial year in Australia. Hong Kong Jack joins from Hong Kong, where the previous day marked Reunification Day, the anniversary of the handover to the People’s Republic of China.
00:01:10 — Housing Prices, First Home Buyers and Negative Equity
The Jacks begin with Australia’s housing market and recent reports of price declines in suburbs with strong uptake of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. They unpack the risk of highly leveraged first home buyers falling into negative equity, where the debt on a property exceeds its current market value.
Hong Kong Jack recalls the early 1990s Melbourne housing market, when banks were reluctant to sell distressed inner-suburban properties because doing so would have further damaged the market. The discussion compares that period with the global financial crisis in the United States and Ireland, where property crashes led to widespread foreclosures.
00:04:00 — Can Australian House Prices Keep Rising?
The conversation turns to whether Australian housing can continue producing the large capital gains many homeowners have come to expect. Jack the Insider argues that prices in Sydney and Melbourne cannot keep rising at the same pace without locking younger buyers out of the market.
Hong Kong Jack makes the broader point that Australia’s tax and investment settings have made owner-occupied housing unusually attractive compared with other investments, contributing to long-term affordability problems.
00:06:36 — Could Money Shift from Housing to the ASX?
Jack the Insider speculates that if housing becomes less reliable as an investment vehicle, more money may flow into equities and the Australian share market. The discussion also touches on the weak outlook for CBD commercial property, with work-from-home trends continuing to affect demand.
00:07:25 — The 5 Per Cent Deposit Scheme
The Jacks assess the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme for first home buyers. Hong Kong Jack says it may provide some help for young people trying to enter the market, but it is not a magic solution to housing affordability.
They discuss the practical challenge of borrowing large sums with very little equity, especially if prices flatten or fall. The risk for banks and borrowers is that buyers may end up with little or no equity for some time.
00:10:41 — The One Nation Surge
The episode moves to One Nation’s rise in the polls. Jack the Insider notes that One Nation polled around 6.5 per cent nationally at the previous federal election but is now polling far higher, with some figures placing the party in the 20s.
The Jacks discuss possible reasons for the surge, including public dissatisfaction with the major parties, the political aftermath of the Bondi terror attack, and the way right-wing voters are shifting away from the Coalition.
00:11:48 — Social Media, Bots and the “Mirage” of One Nation
Jack the Insider raises concerns about foreign influence, AI-generated videos, disinformation and bot-like social media activity targeting Australian politics. He cites examples of fake or misleading material involving Natalie Barr, Anthony Albanese and claims about Labor figures selling property after the budget.
He argues that some of the online activity appears designed to attack both the government and the Coalition while indirectly benefiting One Nation. He describes part of the One Nation surge as a “mirage”, while acknowledging that real-world results, such as the South Australian election and the Farrar by-election, show the party has genuine support.
00:18:20 — Is One Nation the Biggest Political Disruption Since World War II?
Hong Kong Jack argues that, even allowing for some mirage factor, One Nation’s polling makes it the biggest disruption to Australian politics since World War II. He compares the party’s current position with the historical performance of the DLP, Australian Democrats and Greens, none of which reached similar national polling levels.
Jack the Insider counters that One Nation’s rise appears to be splintering the right-wing vote rather than pulling substantial support from Labor or the left. The Jacks agree the Liberal Party has a major strategic problem: it must rebuild its primary vote while deciding how directly to confront One Nation.
00:21:56 — What Should the Liberal Party Do?
The Jacks discuss the Liberal Party’s path back to competitiveness. Hong Kong Jack says the party should stop obsessing over polls and focus on hard policy work, local campaigning and the basics of politics.
Jack the Insider argues the Liberals will eventually need to attack One Nation directly. His view is that conservative voters must be told clearly that a vote for One Nation is likely to help return Labor to government or create instability.
00:23:38 — Pauline Hanson, Policy Uncertainty and Senate Attendance
Jack the Insider criticises Pauline Hanson’s policy understanding and parliamentary work ethic, citing her position on maternity leave and Senate attendance. He argues that One Nation’s shifting policy framework and uncertainty will become more apparent under greater scrutiny.
The Jacks also discuss preference flows and whether the Coalition can rely on One Nation preferences if the right-wing vote remains fragmented.
00:26:51 — Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy and the Victorian Liberals
The conversation shifts to Victorian Liberal politics. Jack the Insider discusses Moira Deeming, who is likely to face disendorsement, and says Jess Wilson appears to be handling internal party discipline more effectively than previous Liberal leaders.
The Jacks examine Deeming’s allegation involving Matthew Guy and the CCTV footage that emerged afterward. Jack the Insider argues that the Victorian Liberals must deal firmly with internal destabilisation if they are to present themselves as a credible alternative government.
00:31:00 — Don Farrell on One Nation and the Bondi Attack
Hong Kong Jack notes that Labor frontbencher Don Farrell has attributed One Nation’s rise partly to Coalition division and partly to a post-Bondi surge. Jack the Insider questions whether the Bondi attack will become a lasting voting determinant, suggesting it may prove to be a temporary political factor.
The discussion also covers One Nation and the Greens voting against proposed bans on hate preachers, despite rhetoric about the issue after Bondi.
00:33:08 — Newspoll, Labor’s Position and Coalition Trouble
Jack the Insider discusses polling showing Labor improving, One Nation slipping slightly and the Coalition struggling. He argues that the Coalition must win back a large share of One Nation’s support if it is to become competitive.
The Jacks consider whether One Nation has reached its high watermark or whether the movement has deeper staying power. They also note that Labor and the Greens together remain in a strong position if the conservative vote continues to fracture.
00:38:08 — Jacinta Allan and Victoria’s Big Build Problems
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan comes under scrutiny over the Big Build projects and allegations surrounding inflated costs and union influence. The Jacks discuss reporting by The Age’s investigative unit and Nick McKenzie, including claims about contractors being asked whether they could do deals with unions.
Hong Kong Jack says Allan’s position looks increasingly terminal, while Jack the Insider says there is widespread anger among Victorians toward the government. They agree the timing of the controversy is politically damaging for Labor.
00:41:07 — Could Victorian Labor Replace Jacinta Allan?
The Jacks debate whether Victorian Labor has the courage or capacity to replace Allan before the election. Jack the Insider argues that taking over now would be a political kamikaze job, given the scale of Labor’s problems.
They compare Allan with Daniel Andrews, whom Jack the Insider describes as a much stronger communicator and political operator. The discussion also considers whether Labor still has a narrow path to victory if the right-wing vote splits between the Liberals, One Nation and other parties.
00:45:35 — The Age, “Uniparty” Claims and Victorian Labor’s Defenders
Hong Kong Jack shares a social media post attacking The Age as part of a supposed One Nation-Liberal-National “uniparty” media operation. The Jacks use it to illustrate the type of rhetoric surrounding Victorian politics and the difficulty Labor faces as corruption and governance issues dominate the debate.
00:46:46 — Joh Bjelke-Petersen Comparisons and Victorian Corruption
The conversation touches on comparisons between Victoria’s current political troubles and the corruption scandals that brought down Joh Bjelke-Petersen in Queensland. Jack the Insider notes commentary suggesting that corruption can become the defining factor that ends a long-running government.
They also discuss the relationship between Victorian Labor and sections of the union movement, including the role of unions in major construction projects.
00:50:30 — Andy Burnham’s UK Program
The Jacks move to UK politics and Andy Burnham’s expected rise to the prime ministership. Hong Kong Jack outlines Burnham’s program, including a proposal to govern partly from Manchester and devolve more power to regions and councils.
Jack the Insider frames this as part of a broader devolution agenda. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical, arguing that devolution has not clearly succeeded in Scotland or Wales and may not deliver the growth Burnham is promising.
00:53:59 — Keir Starmer’s Defence Spending Announcement
Keir Starmer’s proposed defence spending boost comes under scrutiny. Hong Kong Jack argues the numbers do not add up and describes the announcement as “smoke and mirrors”.
The Jacks also discuss Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions and how she may find Burnham a tougher opponent than Starmer.
00:56:59 — “Died” or “Passed Away”?
In a lighter aside, the Jacks discuss euphemisms around death, particularly the increasingly common use of “passed” or “passed away”. Hong Kong Jack says he prefers plain language and warns Jack the Insider not to say he has “passed” when the time comes.
00:58:28 — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Trump’s Decision-Making
The conversation moves to the United States and the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. Jack the Insider discusses material about Trump’s decision-making style, particularly the tendency to favour gut instinct even when advice from officials points in another direction.
The Jacks discuss US decision-making around Iran and the dangers of ignoring structured advice in favour of personal instinct.
01:04:11 — AI, Congress and Insider Trading
The Jacks discuss claims that AI tools have exposed widespread conflicts between congressional stock trades and the legislative work of US politicians. The system described cross-references stock purchases with bills and committee activity.
Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack stress that this is a bipartisan problem, not confined to one party or one administration. They note that the STOCK Act was intended to address congressional trading conflicts but has not produced meaningful enforcement.
01:08:47 — Trump, Crypto, Wealth and Corruption
The discussion broadens to Donald Trump’s personal enrichment, including crypto ventures, the Qatar jet issue and business opportunities involving Trump family members. Jack the Insider argues that Trump appears to be benefiting heavily from his second term.
Hong Kong Jack says the presidency is difficult to regulate in this area, while Congress has shown little willingness to police itself.
01:13:36 — Russia-Ukraine War Update
Jack the Insider discusses Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow, including attacks on fuel infrastructure and refineries. The Jacks note reports of fuel shortages, long queues and unrest at Russian service stations.
Hong Kong Jack explains that Ukraine appears to be targeting specific refinery components that Russia cannot easily replace. The Jacks also discuss reports of Russian troop movements, the pressure on Crimea, and the possibility of political instability inside Russia if the war continues to turn against Moscow.
01:18:34 — Drone Warfare and Moscow’s Vulnerability
The Jacks reflect on how drone warfare has transformed modern conflict. Jack the Insider describes footage of Ukrainian drones reaching Moscow while Russian air defences fired ineffectively.
They note that when the invasion began, few expected Ukraine to hold out for years, let alone gain the upper hand in key areas through targeted strikes and technological adaptation.
01:20:15 — Ben Stokes Retires from International Cricket
The sports segment begins with Ben Stokes’ surprise retirement from international cricket. Jack the Insider describes watching the announcement unfold during England’s Test against New Zealand and says the moment shifted the entire atmosphere of the match.
The Jacks argue that England’s focus turned into a farewell lap for Stokes rather than a serious attempt to win or save the Test.
01:22:10 — England’s Reckless Chase and New Zealand’s Great Win
The Jacks criticise England’s approach to the run chase, including the decision to open with Stokes and the reckless batting that followed. They praise New Zealand for a disciplined, hard-fought victory and highlight Daryl Mitchell’s courageous century on a difficult wicket.
Hong Kong Jack says New Zealand’s series win deserves major recognition, especially given their record away from home under their captain.
01:25:16 — New Zealand’s Strength and England’s Bazball Problem
The Jacks discuss New Zealand’s strengths: preparation, fielding, resilience and intent. They contrast this with England’s loose approach and the possible end of the Bazball era.
Jack the Insider says Ben Stokes has been a wonderful player and match-winner but argues that England now faces serious leadership and management problems. The Jacks debate the futures of Brendon McCullum, Rob Key and England’s Test setup.
01:32:19 — World Cup, France and Brazil
The Jacks briefly discuss the World Cup, noting the difficulty of keeping track of the tournament but identifying France as looking particularly strong. Brazil and Norway are also mentioned as teams to watch.
01:32:47 — State of Origin Preview
The conversation turns to State of Origin, with the Blues heading to Lang Park. Jack the Insider says New South Wales have only rarely won a series decider there and does not see it happening this time.
01:33:15 — AFL Fixtures and Broadcast Frustrations
The Jacks preview upcoming AFL matches, including Geelong versus Brisbane, Sydney versus the Bulldogs, and Richmond versus Carlton. Jack the Insider questions the logic of the AFL fixture, particularly overlapping games and the lack of Saturday afternoon free-to-air football.
01:36:19 — Australian Women’s Cricket Team Reaches Another Final
Jack the Insider notes that Australia’s women’s cricket team has reached another ICC World Cup final after beating India. England and South Africa are due to play for the other spot in the final.
He praises the Australian side for remaining a powerful force despite changes from previous line-ups.
01:37:11 — Listener Feedback and Sign-Off
Jack the Insider closes the episode by thanking Hong Kong Jack for his opinions and preparation. Listeners are encouraged to send in comments, criticisms and issues they would like the Two Jacks to tackle in future episodes.
Hong Kong Jack jokingly asks listeners not to send anything complimentary.
-- Dunno why it did this but it gave another show description? Whatever nobody is still reading at this point.
Short Episode Description
Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Australia’s housing jitters, the risks facing first home buyers, One Nation’s polling surge, and the Coalition’s strategic dilemma. They also examine Victorian Labor’s Big Build troubles, Jacinta Allan’s leadership problems, Andy Burnham’s UK agenda, Trump-era decision-making, congressional stock trading, Ukraine’s drone war against Russia and a huge week in sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement and New Zealand’s Test triumph over England.
Long Episode Description
In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack begin with Australia’s housing market, where falling prices in some first home buyer suburbs raise questions about the 5 per cent deposit scheme and the risk of negative equity.
The major political focus is One Nation’s dramatic rise in the polls. Is it a genuine realignment of Australian politics, the biggest disruption since World War II, or partly a mirage inflated by social media, disinformation and frustration with the major parties? The Jacks examine what this means for the Liberal Party, why the conservative vote is splintering, and how Labor may benefit.
In Victoria, the Jacks look at Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy, Jess Wilson, Jacinta Allan and the Big Build controversies that continue to put pressure on the state government. Overseas, they discuss Andy Burnham’s UK program, Keir Starmer’s defence spending claims, Trump’s reliance on instinct over advice, AI-driven scrutiny of congressional stock trading, and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure.
The episode finishes with sport: Ben Stokes’ international retirement, England’s disastrous Test loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another final.
