Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.

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Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD

Chapters:

0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup

1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar

2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management

3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory

7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6

9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO

13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12

15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies

18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks

24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside

29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case

33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield

35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO

39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?

41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?

43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?

45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day

47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number

50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?

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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/