Ex-CIA analyst predicted Iran crisis years ago - so why was Trump surprised?

2026-06-03

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In 2012, a former CIA analyst ran a war game between the US and Iran.One of the first things he found was that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after America attacked. From there, his war game spiralled to a grisly end.So why did the Trump administration expect a quick victory?Fourteen years after the war game, Richard Engel sits down with Ken Pollack - the man behind the war game and now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute to ask him exactly this.Would Trump and his team have...

In 2012, a former CIA analyst ran a war game between the US and Iran.

One of the first things he found was that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after America attacked. From there, his war game spiralled to a grisly end.

So why did the Trump administration expect a quick victory?

Fourteen years after the war game, Richard Engel sits down with Ken Pollack - the man behind the war game and now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute to ask him exactly this.

Would Trump and his team have been given this information? Why did he press ahead?

The two also discuss the situation inside Iran as well as Israel's renewed strike on Lebanon, and ask the big question: where is this all going next?

You can email your questions to Richard and Yalda at theworld@sky.uk

You can also watch our podcasts on our YouTube channel here.

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