In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim—a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, researcher, and public policy whiz—got this question right, beating a crowd of superforecasters and showcasing his strong forecasting ability.
In this second episode of The Right Side of Maybe, we spoke to Dr. Manheim about his introduction to forecasting, his views on how to improve forecasts with some basic techniques, and the concept of Minimal Valuable Forecasts before digging deeper into his impressive Covid-19 prediction. We also spoke to Dr. Manheim about how forecasting plays a role in his personal life, and heard about his own process when it comes to approaching new forecasting domains.
David Manheim: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim
Global Guessing: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing
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David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19)
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18)
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17)
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement
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✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)
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Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11)
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