David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.
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In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are rising (such as China and India). In the next few years, this has substantial inflationary ramifications for commodities, bonds, equities and currencies, particularly the US dollar. He outlines the way that rising geopolitical conflicts could lead to an escalation of the ongoing warfare between autocracies and democracies. This has dramatic consequences for global asset allocation decisions and favours an overweight investment in gold and many other commodities.
David’s long career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict both the geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets.
Global Forecaster provides actionable real-time market analysis combined with a unique geopolitical overview.
“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro
"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG Analytics
"The Politics of Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Argentina; Can President Milei Succeed?", Nicholas Watson, Teneo
“Global Financial Markets: Recent Trends and Future Prospects”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“Sustainable Investment Opportunities and Risks in 2024”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“The Outlook for the US Economy and Financial Markets in 2024”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook For World Commodity Prices”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group
“Latin American Politics: Navigating The Rapids”, Marcos Buscaglia, Alberdi Partners
“Japan: Back in the Big Time?”, Ryoji Musha, Musha Research
“The Global Financial Markets in 2023 and Beyond”, Ron William, RW Advisory
“ESG Investing: Pitfalls and Potential Opportunities”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market Strategies
“A Diabolical Mechanism”, Mark Latham, Commodity Intelligence
“The Outlook for the Turkish Economy and Financial Assets”, Michael Harris, Cribstone Strategic Macro
“US Economic Policy: Teetering on an Inflationary Equilibrium”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
“The Outlook for the UK and US Economies and Financial Markets”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
“Approaching a Tipping Point for Growth and Inflation Expectations”, Patrick Perret-Green, PPG Macro
“Canada: On Course for a Soft Landing in 2023/24?”, Ben Rabidoux, North Cove Advisors
“Navigating the World with an Inverted Yield Curve”, Michael Churchill, Churchill Research
Research and Markets: “Buckle up for an Increase in Volatility”, JP Smith, IRF
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