Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to cough up internal documents under Freedom of Information laws. This included an internal modelling exercise from September 2022, which revealed the risk of an Australian recession could be as high as 80% by September 2024.
Meanwhile, a recent Bloomberg survey of 14 economists saw the probability of a recession in Australia climb from 35% to 38% in April.
Investors themselves, through their positioning, seem to be suggesting the same. Shares in classic defensive names such as Transurban (up 14%), Woolworths (up 15%), Wesfarmers (up 9%), Coles (up 15%), Telstra (up 10%), Origin Energy (up 9%) and AGL (up 11%) have continued to tick higher since the beginning of the year.
And yet, Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu is unflinchingly bullish. She doesn't believe the Australian economy will nosedive into a hard landing in the next few months or years. Instead, she argues the noise in markets has created extraordinary investment opportunities today.
Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Timestamps0:00 - Intro
1:25 - Three rules investors should live by
4:58 - Jun Bei's North Star for volatile markets
7:34 - Jun Bei's base case: Why she doesn't believe Australia will experience a recession
12:38 - The China re-opening theme isn't over yet (and the stocks' Jun Bei is backing)
19:53 - Jun Bei's earnings outlook for the ASX
21:55 - Companies facing margin pressure over the months ahead
23:11 - Why Jun Bei is shorting Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL)
26:20 - And why she's backing A2 Milk (ASX: A2M), NEXTDC (ASX: NXT), Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG), REA Group (ASX: REA), Xero (ASX: XRO), TechnologyOne (ASX: TNE), Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE).
28:55 - The unloved stocks Jun Bei is loving right now
32:26 - The importance of emotional intelligence when it comes to investing
36:49 - The best CEO and management teams in Australia
39:30 - The Rules of Investing's three favourite questions (what investors are getting wrong, a big win and loss, and a stock Jun Bei would back for the next 5 years)
Chris Stott’s 5 high conviction stock ideas for the new bull market
Christopher Joye: No margin for error for risk junkies craving rate cuts
Why Ben Clark is taking profits on growth stocks (and where he's putting that money to work)
Trailer: Ben Clark, TMS Capital
The next 10 years in ETF growth could be dominated by this asset class
Warryn Robertson’s guide to picking the best infrastructure stocks on the ASX and abroad
The policy overhaul Shane Oliver would make to secure Australia's fortunes
Where Soul Patts is investing for long term growth and dividends
How Hyperion unearths rare but exceptional growth companies (plus two that pass their filters)
How to invest $1 million in 2024
The lead indicator for Dion Hershan’s best trades (and two high quality stocks for the ”slow grind” ahead)
Ben Griffiths’ small cap playbook as animal spirits awaken
2 killer growth stocks (and why culture is key to successful small caps)
Trailer: Qiao Ma, Munro Partners
We are in the midst of a social, economic, financial and political crisis
Invest in what you know, avoid what you don’t: Lessons from a Hall of Fame fund manager
Emma Fisher: Why it pays to be bullish (and the most outstanding idea on the ASX today)
Matthew Kidman: Get ready to run with the bulls
Hedge fund managers never name their shorts. This one does...
Bob Desmond names his ”forever” stock
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
The Commercial Edge: Unleash the Power of People
The emPOWERed Half Hour
Aligned Money Show
Dubai Property Podcast
IBKR Podcasts
The Ramsey Show
The Clark Howard Podcast