Politics Politics Politics

Is Darlene Graham Already Done in South Carolina? US Hackers vs. Foreign Gangs (with Eric Geller)

I’ve got a bad feeling about the South Carolina runoff for Darlene Graham. Lindsey Graham’s sister led the first round with roughly 32 percent but now faces Representative Ralph Norman. Trump encouraged her to run, endorsed her before she formally entered, campaigned with her in Myrtle Beach, and held a runoff-eve tele-rally. MAGA Inc. spent $827,000 on last-day calls and texts supporting her. Norman is a longtime officeholder with a hardline conservative record who backed Trump but committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Nikki Haley in 2024.The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even though the campaign she needed wasn’t difficult. Make it all about Lindsey. South Carolina Republicans had already chosen him, and nobody knew him like his sister. She could’ve presented herself as a caretaker working with his staff to finish the agenda he spent his life building. Every sentence should’ve begun or ended with “Lindsey told me” or “This is what Lindsey would’ve wanted.” Erase the Darlene.Instead, she’s tried to establish the Darlene show. She’s drawn distinctions between Lindsey’s foreign-policy focus and her domestic priorities, but if she’s going to be anything other than Lindsey’s caretaker, voters don’t know her. That choice also makes every piece of her own record fair game. Then she delivered one of the biggest gaffes of the midterms when Greta Van Susteren gave her a question about China and she absolutely gagged on it. You’ve got to know “China bad.” It’s a two-word answer. She hasn’t done good; she’s done bad.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.This is also a low, low, low, low, low-turnout runoff. Dozens of people are going to vote, and the people who show up in elections like this are usually the most energized. The most energized South Carolina Republicans aren’t necessarily Lindsey Graham voters. Many of them are the people who hated Lindsey Graham and wanted a more purebred MAGA senator. Darlene has the Graham name, but the name was already controversial within the party. Her hedge is Trump. The question is whether Trump can still get those voters out.Trump’s average approval is 39.5 percent, with 57.2 percent disapproving. Stinky, bad, awful. If you’re in the low 40s, it’s bad. If you’re in the high 30s, it’s terrible. Darlene says she’s focused on domestic policy, the economy, and kitchen-table issues, but Trump’s economic numbers are even worse: 35.9 percent approve and 60.9 percent disapprove. That’s a 25-point spread. Donald Trump has been the wind beneath her wings, but I don’t know what kind of draft that endorsement creates anymore, even in deep-red South Carolina.MAGA Inc. has $404 million on hand but spent only $2.3 million through July before dumping nearly $1 million into this runoff at the last minute. A huge cash advantage works best when you define people early, not when you wait until the final days. The energy and the issues are with Democrats, while two supposed Republican advantages — money and redistricting — don’t look like advantages right now. If Trump’s endorsement and a last-minute MAGA Inc. spending spree can’t save Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, that’s a bad sign for Republicans far beyond this runoff.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:17 - College Sports Bill00:08:01 - Darlene Graham00:25:20 - Canada00:30:45 - Iran00:34:18 - Mail-in Voting00:37:57 - Interview with Eric Geller01:09:00 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

The THREE Ways the 2026 Midterms Could Go (with Kirk Bado)

The midterms will definitively fall into one of three scenarios. Republicans began this Congress with a 220–215 House majority and hold the Senate 53–47. The environment is brutal for them: Trump’s approval is at 33 percent, 70 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, and the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is getting close to eight points. But Republicans have a big money advantage, and the Senate map still requires almost everything to go right for Democrats.Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats and still hold 218, and a few candidate-specific wins, redrawn districts, or polling errors could get them there. The Senate is already a hard climb for Democrats, and all Trump has done his entire career is surprise people. But pretty much everything argues against this. The president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, Trump’s approval and cost-of-living numbers stink on ice, and the battlefield is expanding into Republican territory. If the GOP holds both chambers, the story won’t be that Trump beat the odds. It’ll be that he is the odds. You don’t bet against Big Donny T.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Scenario two is WINO — Win in Name Only: Democrats win the House by fewer than 10 seats while Republicans retain the Senate. This is, in my view, the most likely scenario as of August. Democrats get Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, control of the legislative agenda, committee gavels, subpoena power, and the ability to impeach by a simple majority. But with a tiny margin, every ideological bloc becomes a potential veto point. A handful of members could threaten Jeffries’ speakership or stop legislation, and impeachment would be ceremonial without the Senate. Republicans keep the brake pedal while their senators become less Trump-aligned as his duck gets lamer. Democrats win the gavel, Republicans keep the brake pedal, and Jeffries ultimately pays the bill.Scenario three is My Blue Heaven: Democrats win the House by more than 10 seats and take the Senate, giving them at least 223 House seats and 51 Democratic-aligned senators. Trump’s approval would need to remain in the low-to-mid-30s, affordability would need to dominate, and Democratic enthusiasm would have to survive the transition from the primaries to November. Progressives and the establishment would need to mend their fences and say, “Onward, onward, onward.” The Senate table would have to be almost entirely clean, including pickups in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, plus a Michigan hold with Abdul El-Sayed.Ah, Nevertheless would mean Trump wriggled out of it yet again and avoided impeachment. WINO would produce a loud, hectic Democratic House that can investigate and pass bills but can’t get much through the Senate. My Blue Heaven would give Democrats control of both chambers, allowing them to send legislation to Trump, multiply the investigations, and begin asking whether they have the votes to eliminate the filibuster.Those are the three paths in front of us: Republicans hold, the parties split power narrowly, or Democrats get their deliverance. It’s a multi-versal ride that will only get clearer as we approach November.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:19 - Midterms Scenarios Revealed00:23:35 - Bernie Endorses Angie Nixon00:27:43 - National Debt00:31:01 - Iran00:35:16 - Kirk Bado on the Midterms01:06:41 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Florida Races Explained! Why Paxton vs. Talarico is Really Dallas vs. Austin (with Brian Brushwood)

Florida is a red state, but it’s never without interest and intrigue. Byron Donalds is going to destroy everybody in the Republican primary for governor. He’s been a Trump loyalist, has Trump’s endorsement, and all the rumors about Casey DeSantis running amounted to a hill of beans. Alex Vindman will likely win the Democratic Senate primary before losing to Ashley Moody in November. But the more interesting races are farther down the ballot, where several people may be out of politics forever when this is over.Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District has seven Republicans competing for what’ll likely be a safe Republican seat. It’s also where I finally found my line on AI-generated political content. A website attacking Belinda Keiser includes an AI image depicting her having sex with Jeffrey Epstein. I’ve had a lot of tolerance for campaigns turning metaphors and fantasies into images, but I guess my line in the sand is a candidate getting piped by Jeffrey Epstein. Now we know. David Burke appeared to be surging at the end, but there isn’t much reliable polling.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The race I’m watching most closely is Florida’s 7th District, where Corey Mills is seeking a third term against former television sports reporter Ryan Elijah. To say Mills is scandal-plagued is to say Pinocchio is only helping Monstro’s dental health, babe. Mills has faced allegations involving two former girlfriends, while the House Ethics Committee is examining possible sexual misconduct, inaccurate financial disclosures, campaign-finance violations, improper gifts, special favors tied to his office, and misuse of congressional resources. He denies wrongdoing. Sparse public polling suggests he could lose, and Republicans in Washington are desperately hoping he does.In Florida’s 20th District, redistricting pushed Debbie Wasserman Schultz into a traditionally Black seat. She’s running against former representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, Dale Holness, Elijah Manley, and Uncle Luke himself, Luther Campbell. With four Black candidates dividing the vote and no runoff in Florida primaries, Wasserman Schultz only needs a plurality. I think she’ll win. Let the sun shine down and reveal the truth as Florida votes — and start a stopwatch when the polls close, because these races will probably be called within about 90 minutes. Shocking how fast that can go. Just saying.Congressional Democrats are preparing another war-powers challenge after Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructs efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve been looking for another non-affordability way to hit Trump over Iran, and this is a good strategy. It’s a historically unpopular war, and they want to tie him to it every way they can. Meanwhile, the administration has paused construction of a border wall inside Big Bend National Park while CBP reviews the project. Not all border is created equal. Big Bend accounts for a small share of crossings, and there are easier, lighter ways to patrol an area where somebody might still have to walk for three days after crossing.ABC has also filed a First Amendment lawsuit accusing the FCC of retaliating against the network for its editorial decisions. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has threatened to revoke ABC’s license amid his fight with the network, particularly over Jimmy Kimmel’s comments about Charlie Kirk’s death. It’s not surprising that ABC is bringing a legal challenge, even if only as a predicate to any FCC action. If you’re ABC and the chairman of the FCC threatens your license, it would be malpractice not to take him seriously and prepare in case it actually happens.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:04:08 - Florida Races00:20:49 - Oman00:25:47 - Border Wall00:28:02 - ABC Sues FCC00:29:35 - Brian Brushwood on the Nuances of Texas’ Electorate01:25:20 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Wisconsin's Democratic UPSET. Exploring the Disney's America That Never Was (with Andrew Heaton)

Wisconsin Democrats narrowly chose Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley over Democratic Socialist state representative Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, 39.8 percent to 39.4 percent. It’s close enough that this might be headed to a recount, but it doesn’t appear that Hong won. Crowley, who was endorsed by Governor Tony Evers, will face Trump-endorsed Republican representative Tom Tiffany. The result halted the progressive left’s recent primary momentum, but it still showed its strength in a battleground state.What you’re probably going to hear about is the polling. After the polls wildly overestimated Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the final State Navigate poll had Hong at 44 percent and Crowley at 22 percent — a 22-point Hong lead. Instead, Crowley won by 0.4 percent. That’s a 22.4-point miss on the margin. Jeez Louise. Hong’s vote share wasn’t wildly off; the poll totally underestimated Crowley. The question is why these polls keep overrepresenting progressive-leaning voters.One theory is that more polls are using online surveys. The old problem with landline calls was that they overrepresented boomers because nobody under 60 had a landline. Nobody answers an unfamiliar number on a cellphone, so that leaves online responses, which might overrepresent progressives. It’s also worth noting that the DSA endorsed Hong, but Bernie Sanders and AOC didn’t. Pure DSA play isn’t good enough to get you over the hump, even in a Democratic primary. Bernie and AOC provide some wiggle room away from the DSA’s baggage.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Next door, Minnesota Democrats delivered a decisive progressive victory as Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig by 20 points for the open Senate nomination. Flanagan overcame a major spending disadvantage after attacking Craig’s immigration record, particularly her 2025 vote expanding ICE authority. Republicans nominated former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya, but barring huge changes in the race, Flanagan is going to be Minnesota’s next senator. In the governor’s race, Amy Klobuchar easily secured the Democratic nomination, while state House speaker Lisa Demuth defeated Trump-backed My Pillow founder Mike Lindell. Please raise your combs in celebration.South Carolina’s emergency election to replace Lindsey Graham is headed to an August 25 runoff between interim senator Darlene Graham and Representative Ralph Norman. Graham, Lindsey’s sister and Trump’s endorsed candidate, finished first with 32.7 percent. Norman took the second spot with 24.6 percent, narrowly eliminating Representative Russell Fry. The vote was pretty split, and I don’t know whether Darlene has the juice to keep Norman off. A lot of Republicans were already angry that she decided to seek the seat permanently instead of serving as a placeholder. Ralph Norman has a real shot. The kiss of death for Darlene would be the double endorsement — a double Trump endorsement.Former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin also defeated 14-term Democratic representative John Larson, 54 percent to 33 percent. Larson, 78, became the seventh House Democrat defeated in a primary this cycle, while Governor Ned Lamont won renomination. In Alabama, Trump-endorsed Republican Rhett Marques advanced to face Democratic representative Shomari Figures in the redrawn Second District, where the Black voting-age population was reduced from 48 percent to 40 percent.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:05:42 - Tuesday Primary Results00:16:18 - Exploring Disney’s America with Andrew Heaton01:19:36 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Progressives Scrape By in Michigan. Crowning a Way-Too-Early 2028 Champ (with Evan Scrimshaw)

Abdul El-Sayed is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, but the victory was much closer than it looked when I initially planned to call it. With 23 percent of the vote counted, Haley Stevens was barely leading in Oakland County, which she represents in Congress, and the outstanding votes appeared to favor El-Sayed. I thought he was heading toward an eight-to-ten-point win. Instead, the margin narrowed to about 1.4 percent. Barring some miraculous vote drop out of Detroit, El-Sayed wins, but this wasn’t an overwhelming progressive victory.The polling miss is the polling miss. Congressional polling is never the most reliable. What’s strategically telling is that much of the expectation for a blowout came from El-Sayed’s own campaign, which released internal polling showing him ahead by 15 points. That obviously didn’t happen. Can you question the wisdom of releasing those numbers? You can. You can question that wisdom.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.I still got my prediction wrong. I picked Stevens by five, so allow me to eat the mistakes. My prediction was closer to the final result than El-Sayed’s internal polls, but a loss is still a loss. I believed Mallory McMorrow’s female voting bloc would break more heavily for Stevens. I said from the beginning that McMorrow would decide this race; I just didn’t realize it would be her ghost bridging the gap between the other two candidates.El-Sayed started this three-way dance as the owner of the progressive lane, and he owned the issues that mattered in Michigan. It didn’t matter how folksy the Stevens campaign tried to make her. El-Sayed won, the establishment lost, and progressives deserve to celebrate. Raise a PBR and let your tears stain your unused college degree. Progressive listeners can dance on my shame because they’ve earned it.But the lesson for progressives is the opposite of what it was on The Real World: They need to stop getting real and start getting polite. Their movement isn’t overwhelming. I don’t care how fired up Michigan is about Israel, Medicare for All, or any other progressive policy. El-Sayed needs Haley Stevens voters if he’s going to defeat Mike Rogers. He needs to reach out and say, “Let’s stick it to ‘em… together,” because progressives aren’t going to get there by doing it exactly their way forever.This is still a big day for progressives, but the final margin changes what it means. It wasn’t proof that they can squash the establishment on their own. It was proof that they can win a close primary and then immediately need the people they just beat. Celebrate the victory, take the lesson from the margin, and rerack for the general election.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro and Updated Michigan Thoughts00:03:10 - Progressives and the Establishment00:12:37 - Evan Scrimshaw on 2028 Democratic Primaries01:18:44 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe