This Week in Futures Options

TWIFO 479: A Year of Treacherous and Improbable Events

The first "January Lion" of 2026 has arrived. Join Mark Longo and Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading as they kick off the new year with a high-octane look at the futures options landscape. From the aftermath of a historic 2025 to the geopolitical shocks of the first week of January, this episode breaks down why the "old rules" of the commodity markets are being rewritten. In This Episode: The 2025 Retrospective: A look back at a "once-in-50-year" event in the metals complex. Carley provides a candid "humbling" on the massive surge in gold and silver, and why 2025 was the year of the devoted trend follower. The Silver Beast: Silver dominated last year with a 140%+ gain. Carley and Mark discuss the "Reverse 2020" effect, the impact of triple-leveraged ETFs, and why trading Silver options right now requires nerves of steel and a massive margin account. Movers & Shakers: * The Light Side: A continuation of the metals rally (Silver, Platinum, Palladium) and a surprising 5% YTD surge in the Russell 2000 ($RUT). The Dark Side: Energy struggles as WTI and Brent lead the losers, while Natural Gas faces a "trap door" at the $3.60 pivot. Equity Index Analysis: Why the "Mag 7" dominance is yielding to a Small-Cap catch-up play in the Russell. Plus, a strategy for "tail-risk nibbling" using deep out-of-the-money March and June puts. Energy & Geopolitics: The team breaks down the "Maduro effect" and why Venezuela's supply won't be a quick fix for the crude markets. Carley explores the possibility of a capitulation move in oil toward the low $40s. Viewer Q&A: The blurring lines between "trading" and "betting" as CME and FanDuel move closer together. Market Volatility Snapshot (CVOL) Treasury Yield Vol: Pinning the needle at 78.9 (High for the week). Energy CVOL: Popping to 60.6 as geopolitical tensions rise. Metals CVOL: Easing slightly to 31.0 despite massive moves in the underlying.

TWIFO 478: Crude Embargoes and Winter Wheat

Is the energy market ready for a supply shock? On the final TWIFO of 2025, Mark Longo breaks down the surge in Energy CVOL as the U.S. intensifies pressure on Venezuela. With a crude oil embargo ratcheting up, we examine how WTI Crude is reacting and what the "Smart Money" is pricing into the February options skew. We also shift our focus to the Ag complex, specifically Chicago Wheat (SRW), where we're seeing a surprising "Precious Metals-style" skew. From zero-cost collars in March Wheat to the massive 15% explosion in Palladium, we break down the movers and shakers at CME Group to close out the year. Movers and Shakers: The CME Group Heatmap The Dark Side: Natural Gas leads the decline (off 7.04%), followed by BTC Crypto (off 6%) and S&P Tech (off 4.5%). The Light Side: Palladium is the standout winner (up 15.1%), with Platinum (up 5.6%) and Silver (up 2.2%) following the shiny metal trend. Product Breakdown: Energy & Ag WTI Crude Oil: Analyzing the shift to a 5% put bid in February. Is the market fading the Venezuela rally? Chicago Wheat: Breaking down the 550 call vs. 500 put volume. Why are traders loading up on March upside? CVOL Update: Energy Volatility roars to the high of the week (63.68) while Treasury Yield Volatility hits multi-month lows.

TWIFO 477: The Hunt Bros vs. The Widowmaker

This episode of 'This Week in Futures Options' delivers a detailed analysis of the futures options market, focusing on the latest trends and significant movements in silver futures options and natural gas futures options trading activity. Hosted by Mark Longo, the program provides essential insights into the top futures trades, volatility shifts, and hot products for the week. The show includes statistics on both the light and dark sides of the market, highlighting noteworthy trades like a February 80-85 call spread in silver and active movements in January natural gas options.

TWIFO 476: Is Taylor Swift Hunt-ing Silver?

In this action-packed episode of This Week in Futures Options (TWIFO), host Mark Longo and special guest Dan Gramza (Gramza Capital Management) break down the massive volatility and unexpected price movements across commodity and futures options markets. We conduct a detailed futures options analysis on the shocking, explosive rip in Silver, which is now the best-performing asset tracked by the show this year. We also dive into the highly active Natural Gas (NG) market, discussing key support levels and the shifting landscape of global LNG demand. Plus, we address the viral audience theory: Is Taylor Swift cornering the silver market? 📈 Key Topics & Trading Takeaways Explosive Silver Rally: Detailed breakdown of the 14.05% spike in silver and the Feb 80/85 Silver Call Vertical trade (for only 12 cents!), as volatility is aggressively priced out. Natural Gas Volatility: Analysis of the current Nat Gas (NG) five-handle price level, the demand outlook for a colder winter, and the dominant Jan 6 Calls and Jan 4 Puts trading activity. Gold (GC) Market Structure: Comparing gold's performance to silver, the role of central bank demand (dollarization/de-dollarization), and the 4500-strike call vertical flow. Futures Options Volatility: A look at the week's C-Vol report showing volatility annihilation across the board for FX, Treasuries, Metals, and Energy. The Great Debate: Guest Dan Gramza shares his expert opinion on whether cranberry sauce with nuts qualifies as a side dish or a topping.

TWIFO 475: Market Whipsaw & The Tsunami of Near-Dated Futures Options

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider CME HOT SEAT: Mike Tosaw, St. Charles Wealth Management In this episode, Mark and Mike discuss the significant trading volume and price swings in the S&P 500, spurred by Nvidia earnings and broader market dynamics. The show delves into specific trades and strikes lighting up the tape, highlighting unusual activity in short-term options. Uncle Mike shares insights into the bond market, focusing on the 10-year note and the implications of upcoming Fed decisions. Additionally, the episode examines heightened activity in the gold market, providing an in-depth look at trading strategies and market sentiment.