Freight Up! Fuel oil, iron ore, steel and other commodity insights from Freight Investor Services

Hedging commodities, monetary policy and crude oil fluctuations

Hedging, Monetary Policy, and Oil Swings: Insights from FIS’s Latest PodcastThis week on Freight Up, we set out to give listeners practical insights into the world of risk management across the commodity spectrum, from freight to metals to crude oil. If you’re looking to understand what’s really happening under the surface of today’s volatile markets, this episode features perspectives from professionals who operate right at that interface between price risk and real-world trade. We started with Samuel Basi, founder of Perfectly Hedged Consultancy and a former Trafigura metals trader, for a deep dive into the realities of commodity hedging in liquid and illiquid markets. From there, we heard from Carlo Boffa, a central bank watcher at Politico, on central bank decisions and how the evolving landscape of monetary policy is shaping the US dollar and, by extension, commodity prices. We wrap up with Archie Smith, oil broker, who broke down the extreme pricing swings in the oil market driven by macro shocks and geopolitical headlines, highlighting what’s front of mind for market participants right now.Some of the headline talking points this week include: the merits and pitfalls of one-to-one hedging in today’s market, with Sam exploring where hedging can reduce risk and where it might inadvertently add more. We tackled the specific challenges faced by traders and companies in less liquid markets, including practical ways to quantify risk and work with imperfect hedges—or get creative in the over-the-counter space to find coverage. Options came under the spotlight, especially with clients’ hesitancy to use them, and Sam gave practical context about why options sometimes get overlooked and when they can be a valuable part of a strategy. Companies mentioned in this episode: FIS Perfectly Hedged Consultancy Trafigura Politico LME CME SGX ICE Citadel GMI

Capes Climb and Arb opportunity on Iron Ore Spreads

This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads.I’m Jess, and alongside Davide, I’ll be steering you through what’s been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets. This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark. We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal. To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what’s shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it’s been a sideways stretch for paper spreads.If you listen in, you’ll get a clear overview of how China’s latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows. Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that’s hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates.From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what’s behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action. Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil’s recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC’s output strategies and why Singapore’s high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There’s especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts.By the time you’ve finished listening, you’ll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you’ll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances. Whether you’re looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what’s shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.

Iron ore drops and HSFO cracks at historical highs

Iron ore has seen a sharp drop recently, and high sulphur fuel oil cracks have surged to levels not seen before—two standout moves that framed this episode of Freight Up. Hi I’m Jess, and alongside Davide and the team, we walk you through what’s really driving these changes in dry bulk freight and associated commodity markets. You'll get to listen in at how macroeconomic shifts, from British and Chinese output data to volatile US producer prices, ripple through to capesize, panamax, and supramax freight rates. We pull apart the data to give you a snapshot of who’s gaining, who’s losing, and crucially, why those shifts matter for your business or your market view.Ben Klang takes us through the past two weeks on the freight desk, describing how minor volatility in the cape market was quickly tempered as fixtures came through and macro tensions eased. If you’re watching iron ore, we cover the steep pullback, tied less to headlines and more to solid fundamentals: declining pig iron output in China, seasonal maintenance, and looming Indian monsoon slowdowns. Hao Pei shares why these are seasonal and not panic-worthy moves, even if some investors have visions of iron ore dropping into the low $70s. On oil and bunkers, Archie Smith delivers a concise summary: crude markets haven’t escaped their range, with all eyes on the upcoming OPEC meeting, while high sulphur fuel oil cracks—historically always negative—have broken into positive territory, even hitting plus $4 in Singapore. Timestamped summary00:00 China's Industrial Growth Slows06:25 Capesize Market Challenges Persist07:03 Capesize Cargo Volumes Rising11:49 "Market Shifts Impact Iron Ore Demand"14:59 OPEC Meeting and Crude Price Outlook16:47 Record-High Crack Spread Highlights TrendsDownload the FIS Live app! - https://freightinvestorservices.com/

Tariff suspension provides short term boost to commodity markets

The main story across freight and commodities over the past fortnight has been the headline-making 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China. Hi, I’m Jess, and on this episode of Freight Up, myself and Davide unpack how this policy shift has tempered volatility and delivered a short-term lift to otherwise flat markets. Ben Klang joins us after a busy run of industry events, detailing the impact on dry freight—where Capesize contracts saw a fleeting rebound before losing ground, and smaller Panamax and Supramax rates remained lacklustre. We’ll investigate the cautious optimism on the macro front, following stubborn inflation and steady US employment numbers. We'll also take a closer look at iron ore and steel markets, with regional insights you won’t want to miss. From Shanghai, Hao Pei explores iron ore’s resilience—even as tariffs shift—and the mounting influence of port logistics in Peru and ongoing maintenance cycles in China. Timestamped summary00:00 Mixed Inflation and Market Stability03:32 Cape Size Contract Fluctuations08:06 Steel Tariffs Impact and Trade Dynamics10:44 FOBCC Market Outlook Uncertain13:24 US Steel Market Challenges18:10 "Spot Price Drop Forecasted"Website Check out FIS Live - https://www.fis-live.com/

Global events shaping the commodities markets

Markets this week have been shaped by a volley of global events, each leaving its mark on commodities and freight. We’ve seen flat performances across dry freight indexes, despite slight gains in Capesize and Panamax sectors, and a muted Supramax uptick offset by minor losses in Handys. Oil and equity markets? Responding to political developments, most notably in the US, as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on sentiment. If you’re following the impact of US and Canadian politics on trade, this episode provides a timely overview. Chris Hudson joins me, Davide, to break down the effects of Trump’s executive orders and tariffs on North America’s cross-border commodity trade, alongside the newly-elected Prime Minister Carney’s reaction in Canada. We flag the difficulties market participants are facing as they try to adapt to “wait and see” conditions, with S&P volatility, shifting border policy, and tariff unpredictability creating new risks. The episode also explores the knock-on effects for currencies and global commodity pricing, tracking the Fed’s interest rate stance and its implications for everything priced in dollars. You'll get a first-hand view on how global supply chains are being tested by changing political rhetoric, and what this means for iron ore, coking coal, and dry freight trends moving into May.Timestamps00:00 Market Volatility Amid News Overload03:36 U.S. Politics: Executive Orders & Market Trends08:24 Trump Era Politics & Economic Insights09:54 Trump Criticises Powell on Rates14:41 Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting16:49 Decarbonisation Challenges and Economic Priorities21:46 US Tariff Easing Boosts Markets24:14 Australian Coking Coal Market Rebounds