The Data Is Lying: What Buyers Are Really Paying in 2026 (Less Than You Think)
We’ve all seen the data. Home prices are falling but remain relatively “flat,” year over year. There’s just one problem: the data is lying. We’re in a full-blown buyer’s market now, and what investors are actually paying for homes is much less than most people realize. Behind the scenes, buyers are negotiating thousands—even tens of thousands—of dollars in seller concessions that never show up in home sales data. Closing costs. Interest rate buydowns. Repair credits. Even cash. These concessions are quietly driving the real cost of homes much lower than the numbers suggest. In fact, nearly half of all home sales now include some kind of seller concession, and that’s on top of the price drops we’re seeing in many markets. How much are investors really saving? The amount is often capped based on the deal and the loan. But even these concession limits have workarounds. If you use this two-pronged strategy for negotiating asking price and concessions, you’ll have a clear path to saving 3%, 5%, or maybe even upward of 10% on your next deal. This is the kind of advantage that can make the numbers work, even in the toughest of markets. In This Episode We Cover Why the median home sale price isn’t what investors are actually paying in 2026 How to negotiate massive discounts on properties in most markets Two ways to get around the seller concession limits for investors The markets with the highest percentage of home sales with seller concessions A “balanced” strategy for scoring a lower purchase price and seller concessions And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area 11 Items You Can Negotiate in a Real Estate Deal Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Redfin: 46% of Home Sellers Gave Concessions to Buyers in May, the Highest Share on Record for That Month Redfin: America’s Housing Market Favors Buyers—But Their Advantage Is Starting to Shrink Grab the Book on Negotiating Real Estate Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-439. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trump Just Stalled the Biggest Housing Bill in Decades
You’ve seen the headlines. The housing market is stuck. Distress is rising. But if you dig beneath the surface, the actual data tells a different story. The market isn’t in freefall, and in many places, there’s more “stability” than most people think. And small investors are quietly taking the lead. This week’s stories all point the same way. Inventory is essentially “flat,” up just 0.25% year over year. Luxury supply is rising, but homes floating around the median home price—the kind “mom-and-pop” investors like you and I are buying—remain tight. Meanwhile, the percentage of home sales to investors is climbing, with the dial gradually swinging toward the “small” investor. And then there’s what’s happening in Washington. On Wednesday, President Trump canceled the signing of the biggest housing bill in decades. For now, we’ll have to wait a little longer until it becomes law. But if (or when) it gets passed, how will it actually impact the housing market? Are its benefits for the average American being overstated, or is this the supply-side reform we’ve been waiting for? In This Episode We Cover Why the 2026 housing market is more “stable” than most investors think Where “small” investors are taking a larger share of recent home sales What comes next after President Trump canceled the signing of the new housing bill How the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act will affect the market (if or when it’s passed) The two types of markets where inventory is either rising up or trending down And So Much More! Links from the Show Baselane: Automate your rental cash flow for a chance to win $10K plus BiggerPockets Pro members get a free upgrade to Baselane Smart. Sign up now Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area A New Bill Proposes Tax-Free Savings for Homeownership—Here’s How It Could Help Prospective Investors Dave's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Baselane is a financial technology company and is not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Thread Bank, Member FDIC.NO PURCH. NEC. Open to legal residents of 50 US/DC, 18+ & are Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-438. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Peace Deal Signed: Where Mortgage Rates Are Actually Headed
The peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been agreed to (at least for now). The Strait of Hormuz, the chokehold on 20% of the world’s oil, is starting to open back up, and trade can, at least temporarily, continue. The question is, will inflation begin to fall if oil flows (more) freely through the Middle East? And if inflation falls, could mortgage rates be right behind them? Today, we’re talking about what could actually happen from here on out. We’ve seen a lot of opinions recently saying this deal could boost the economy and the housing market, or bring mortgage rates back down to earth. The question is, will any of that actually happen? As real estate investors, knowing what’s coming down the pipeline can give you a huge advantage, but believing the wrong narrative can cost you. So today, I’m giving you my honest, data-backed take on what happens next. Will inflation and mortgage rates retreat? When could we begin to see the effects of the open Strait? Will the housing market bounce back as the supply chain heals? And what should a real estate investor be on the lookout for before the changes hit our economy? In This Episode We Cover What really happens to mortgage rates when oil begins to flow and inflationary pressures ease? Why economists are saying we could be “warm for a while” in this economy Does Dave think rates will fall below 6% any time in 2026 (and if not, where will they be)? The two things that could lead us to lower mortgage rates (one is good, one is…not) The real effects the housing market will feel once the Strait is fully opened again And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On The Market 432 - J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Oxford Economics: US PCE Nowcast – Headline inflation will creep above 4% CNBC: Bank of America expects three Fed hikes this year, says inflation is getting ‘unambiguously worse’ NAR Housing Affordability Index Grab the Book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-437. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates
The new Federal Reserve Chair is already making news, signaling a major change to rates—and not in the way Americans were hoping for. With inflation up, the Fed has eyed raising, not cutting, the Federal Funds rate, all while changing key language on price stability at its most recent meeting. The question is, will they do it, or is this simply a bluff to stop the market from getting out of control? We’re back to break down this week’s top housing market headlines, from the Fed’s recent meeting to a surprising comeback in a few markets most believed were dead, and the massive HELOC pull that is taking billions more out of the housing market and into owners' hands. First, we’re touching on the Fed. Will they really raise rates by this fall, defying the exact hopes of President Trump, or is this just a bluff to cool an already hot economy? Why is office, of all things, seeing a major comeback, and why are America’s most divisive housing markets leading the charge? Finally, homeowners pull out a massive $47B (with a b) in home equity. Is this a cry for help from struggling homeowners? We’re getting into it all! In This Episode We Cover The Fed’s latest announcement on inflation, rate movements, and their next moves What investors are doing now before rate hikes make their way back One commercial real estate asset class seeing a surprising comeback Is America’s boom-then-bust market (Austin, Texas) finally seeing its turnaround? $47B in equity pulled: Are homeowners in trouble, and using equity to save themselves? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Kevin Warsh is the Next Fed Chair—Here’s What Investors Should Expect From Him Dave's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Reuters: Traders now see Fed raising rates by September WSJ: The AI Office Boom Feels Like 2000 All Over Again HousingWire: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Lock-in effect drives surge in home equity lending Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-436. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wall Street is Locking You Out of the Housing Market (Unless You Pay Up)
Wall Street is quietly monopolizing the housing market—and we’re not talking about them buying homes. It’s something more far-reaching, something that will affect every investor in every market on every single deal. Your local HVAC, pest control, drywall, and plumbing companies are seemingly raising prices in tandem, and each year it gets more expensive. Your material costs are jumping, sometimes 100% higher than they were just a few years ago, and every single brand seems to be owned by the same parent company. Now, your real estate agent is telling you that you’re unable to view listings from another brokerage. Slowly, piece by piece, you’re being locked or priced out of the housing market, or you’re paying exorbitant amounts of money just to stay in the game. Why? Two words—corporate consolidation—the final play from Wall Street to make as much money as possible on every single thing you do for your home and real estate portfolio. There are only a few ways to escape it. Today, I’m explaining how. In This Episode We Cover The “corporate consolidation” machine gobbling up small businesses and raising prices on everything Why your material costs are rising so much more than the inflation rate The brokerage that’s trying to lock you out of the market unless you work with them How the American housing market became a corporate profit playground Three things you can do today to keep your costs down and stay in the loop on real estate deals And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area How To Estimate Rehab Costs In Real Estate Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Sign Up for BiggerPockets Pro to Unlock Exclusive Pro Perks! Build Your Network on the BiggerPockets Forums Grab The Book on Estimating Rehab Costs Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-435. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices