Jack Tame: Cocaine bust was just a drop in the ocean

Of all the things to be plucked out of the ocean by authorities this week, the Chinese balloon probably caused the greatest international incident. But you can only imagine the mood on the deck of the HMNZS Manawanui, as the Kiwi crew hauled in half a billion dollars worth of cocaine.

3.2 tonnes of cocaine sounds like a lot. And it is, when you frame it in the context of New Zealand’s drug market. But given the U.N estimates about two thousand tonnes of cocaine is produced in South America every year, authorities would need to make 625 hauls of a similar size to wipe out an annual supply.

A Pacific drug bust every 13 hours.

The Police reckon the Pacific haul was headed to Australia. And although they’ve framed it as a massive blow to the illicit drug industry, there’s a good argument to be made that the next few months are likely to be pretty lucrative for cocaine dealers in Oz, who will no doubt charge an even greater premium for whatever product they do have on hand.

Just imagine you’re part of an organised crime syndicate in South America watching the news. Even before the bust, New Zealand and Australia consumers paid some of the highest prices for cocaine of any market in the World. Now, you’ve every reason to think the drugs you could be selling in America or Europe will fetch an even greater premium down under. A bust like this only incentivises producers to send more drugs our way.

There’s also the likelihood the cocaine that has reached its Australasian destination will be cut with other, more dangerous drugs in order to extend supply. Even before the mysterious package was fished out of the Pacific, cocaine purity in Australasia was poor, at best. A study by the Australian National University last year found the country’s cocaine purity was just 27 percent, and 40 percent of the samples they tested, purporting to be cocaine, contained no cocaine whatsoever.

You can smirk, but for years, health authorities in Australia have warned about a much more dangerous drug – fentanyl – turning up in cocaine powder. In September, a new report showed fentanyl deaths in Australia have increased more than 1000% in the last 15 years.

I’m always bemused when authorities celebrate a big drug bust. I’m not suggesting they shouldn’t seek to crack down on international drug syndicates, but ultimately it’s just a game of whack-a-mole.

There is no winning the war on drugs. In New Zealand and Australia, cocaine is a glamorous drug. It’s socially acceptable in middle-class circles in a way that methamphetamine has never been. A blow to cocaine supply won’t do anything to hurt cocaine demand. And as long as demand exists, suppliers will find a way. The bust this week might have been celebrated as a victory for the law, but ultimately it was just a drop in the ocean.

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