Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession.
Links:
https://www.axoniccap.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/
0:00 Intro
0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp
2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession
4:19 American consumer
5:31 Equity markets
8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing
15:43 Vulnerabilities
18:08 Zombie companies
22:37 Fed outlook
26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation
27:50 Long and variable lags question
#197 Bill Fleckenstein On Why The Fed's Rate Cut Was A Mistake, The End Game For The Activist Central Bank Era, And The Psychology Of Market Bubbles
#196 Brent Johnson, Creator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, Explains How The Global Economy Is 'One Big Carry Trade'
#195 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Is Afraid To Really Fight Inflation
#194 Dr. Art Laffer: If Trump Wins And Follows The Economic Policies Of His First Term We Could See A Renaissance In America
#193 'The Bulls Are No Longer In Charge' — Tom McClellan On What The Market Is Signaling Right Now
#192 Dr. Lacy Hunt On What The Huge Downward Revision In The Jobs Data Means For The Economy
#191 Ted Oakley On Deep Market Selloffs: 'If You Don't Have Any Liquidity, It's Not An Opportunity For You'
#190 Brian Wesbury: 'The Morphine Is Wearing Off' And We're Headed For Recession And A Market Correction
#189 Rick Rule On Paying Attention To The Warning Signs In The Economy And Insuring Against Collective Stupidity
#188 Chris Whalen On The Difficult Economic Environment Ahead
#187 Michael Pento: A Triumvirate Of Bubbles Is Creating A Dangerous Situation For Markets And The Economy
#186 David Woo, Economist Who Nailed 2016 And 2020 Election Outcomes, Explains Why The Market Has The Trump Trades Wrong
#185 Jim Rickards: We're Probably Already In A Civil War
#184 Professor Steve Hanke, Who Nailed The 9% Inflation Call, Sees It Falling To 2.5%-3% By Year-End And A Recession On The Way
#183 Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning, Tribalization of America, And The Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump
#182 Tyler Cowen On Why We Might Get Lucky And AI Can Solve Out Debt Situation
#181 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Is Worried About A Recession Next Year
#180 Andrew Wilkinson On Going From A Barista To A Billionaire, Building Tiny 'The Berkshire Hathaway' Of Tech, And Life Lessons From Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, And Bill Ackman
#179 Ed Dowd On The Fed's Policy Error And Why We Could See A Bad Correction Ahead
#178 Peter Boockvar: The Is The Most Mixed And Uneven Economy That I’ve Ever Seen And It Feels More Like A 1.5% GDP Growth Rate Economy Rather Than 3%
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