While the United States' 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports are on hold, observers said the tariffs will return if Canada fails to meet further US demands, and the bilateral relationship would remain challenging.尽管目前美国对加拿大进口商品征收25%关税的命令处于暂停状态，但观察人士表示，如果加拿大无法满足美国的进一步要求，关税将再次实施，双边关系仍面临挑战。During the 30-day suspension of the 25 percent tariff, Adam Chapnick, a professor of defense studies at the Royal Military College of Canada, contended that negotiations between Canada and the US will proceed quietly and in conjunction with discussions with...
While the United States' 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports are on hold, observers said the tariffs will return if Canada fails to meet further US demands, and the bilateral relationship would remain challenging.
尽管目前美国对加拿大进口商品征收25%关税的命令处于暂停状态，但观察人士表示，如果加拿大无法满足美国的进一步要求，关税将再次实施，双边关系仍面临挑战。
During the 30-day suspension of the 25 percent tariff, Adam Chapnick, a professor of defense studies at the Royal Military College of Canada, contended that negotiations between Canada and the US will proceed quietly and in conjunction with discussions with Mexico.
加拿大国防研究领域学者、皇家军事学院教授亚当·查普尼克认为，在25%关税暂缓实施的30天内，加拿大与美国将悄然进行谈判，并与和墨西哥的讨论同步开展。
"However, if Canada fails to meet further US demands, the tariffs could certainly return," he told China Daily.
他告诉《中国日报》：“然而，如果加拿大不能满足美国的进一步要求，关税肯定会再次实施。”
He said that "most Canadian officials assume that US President Donald Trump will reiterate his demand that Canada drastically increase defense spending".
他表示，“大多数加拿大官员认为，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将重新要求加拿大大幅增加国防开支。”
Canada is one of eight NATO countries out of 30 that are estimated to be falling short of the NATO defense spending target of 2 percent, according to Canadian broadcaster CBC News, which reported that Ottawa was estimated to spend about 1.37 percent of GDP in 2024.
据加拿大广播公司报道，北约30个成员国中有8个国家的国防开支预计未达到北约国防开支目标（占GDP的2%），加拿大就是其中之一。该报道称，渥太华2024年的国防开支预估约占其GDP的1.37%。
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair told CBC News last month that it was "absolutely achievable" for Canada to meet the spending level in two years.
加拿大国防部长比尔·布莱尔上个月告诉加拿大广播公司说，加拿大在两年内达到这一开支水平是“绝对可以实现的”。
Public Safety Canada announced an expansion of its $1.3 billion border security plan on Feb 4, introducing measures such as appointing a fentanyl monitor to enhance interdiction efforts with US counterparts.
2月4日，加拿大公共安全部宣布扩大一项投资13亿美元的边境安全计划，并采取任命芬太尼监测员等措施以加强与美国的拦截合作。
"It's necessary and should have been made regardless of President Trump's demands," Chapnick said. "While the US president's stance may have slightly accelerated moves that would have and should have been made anyway, the decision aligns with Canada's preexisting security objectives," he said.
查普尼克说：“这一做法是必要且应当的，无论特朗普总统提出什么要求。虽然美国总统的立场可能略微加速了一些本来就会进行、也应该进行的行动，但这一决定符合加拿大既定的安全目标。”
M. Scott Taylor, former president and fellow of the Canadian Economics Association, said he expects the tariff situation to be resolved within the 30-day window and that a Canadian response to harden the border and start renegotiating the trade deal will happen.
加拿大经济学协会前主席兼会员斯科特·泰勒表示，他预计关税问题将在30天窗口期内得到解决，而加拿大也将采取行动，加强边境管控并开始重新谈判贸易协议。
"Canada could and should liberalize trade in dairy products as a means to placate American demands," he told China Daily.
他告诉《中国日报》：“加拿大可以也应该放宽乳制品贸易，以平息美国的要求。”
However, he noted that the bilateral relationship will remain challenging as long as Trump is in office.
但他也指出，只要特朗普在任，双边关系将继续面临挑战。
Taylor said if the tariffs remain in place, it will underscore the need for Canada to diversify export markets. And significant opposition to tariffs is likely to come from the US business community.
泰勒说，如果关税继续存在，这将凸显加拿大实现出口市场多元化的必要性。而且，美国商界很可能会对关税表示强烈反对。
Consequences foreseen
预见的后果
For Canadian consumers and businesses, Taylor predicted that the Canadian dollar is likely to fall, driving up the price of groceries and imported inputs.
泰勒预测，对于加拿大消费者和企业来说，加元可能会贬值，从而导致食品和进口产品价格上涨。
He said he anticipates a small uptick in inflation, but it will be temporary. "If the 25 percent tariffs become permanent, it would lower Canadian GDP and limit our growth prospects," he said.
他预计通胀率会小幅上升，但只是暂时的。“如果25%的关税成为永久，加拿大的国内生产总值将降低，增长前景也会受到限制，”他说。
Sui Sui, a professor at the Ted Rogers School of Management at Toronto Metropolitan University, characterized the US tariffs as a form of economic imperialism.
多伦多城市大学特德·罗杰斯管理学院教授隋绥将美国的关税称为一种“经济帝国主义”。
She argued that the US imposes tariffs as a tool of pressure against countries that do not comply with its demands.
她认为，美国将关税作为工具，用来对不遵守其要求的国家施加压力。
Sui said that because more than 70 percent of Canada's exports go to the US, the levies have the potential to severely undermine integrated supply chains.
隋绥说，由于加拿大70%以上的出口产品流向美国，这些关税有可能严重破坏一体化供应链。
Sui said she expects the tariffs to lead to higher costs for businesses and Canadian consumers.
隋绥表示，她预计关税将导致企业和加拿大消费者的成本上升。
"If our exports decline, it's not just businesses that are hurt—that would increase the price of groceries, as well as other imported products," she said, adding the government would also have less money to fund social welfare, infrastructure and education.
她表示，“如果我们的出口下降，受伤害的不仅仅是企业——还将导致食品和其他进口产品的价格上涨”。她补充说，政府也将没有足够的资金用于社会福利、基础设施、教育。
In retaliation against the US tariffs, Canada announced its own reciprocal tariffs. But Sui said Canadian tariffs should focus on targeting certain sectors in the US so it can have a strong economic impact but minimize damage to its own economy.
为回击美国加征关税，加拿大宣布了自己的报复性加税。但隋绥说，加拿大应该针对美国的某些行业加税，这样既可以产生剧烈的经济影响，又能将自身经济的损害降到最低。
"A broad boycott of all US goods isn't realistic," she said. Instead, Sui suggested focusing on companies that previously had Canadian manufacturing operations but relocated to the US due to US pressure.
“大范围抵制所有美国商品是不现实的，”她说。相反，隋绥建议将重点放在那些之前曾在加拿大设有制造业务，但由于美国压力而迁至美国的公司上。
"We can encourage them to return by requiring more domestic sourcing and production," she said.
“我们可以通过增加国内采购和生产来鼓励它们回流，”她说。
Sui said that Canada should strategically impose tariffs on goods produced in states that strongly support Trump, as well as luxury products. "Liquor and high-end goods are fair targets because they have minimal impact on ordinary Canadians."
隋绥说，加拿大应该采取战略性措施，对那些强烈支持特朗普的州生产的商品及奢侈品征收关税。“酒类和高端商品是合理目标，因为它们对普通加拿大人的影响微乎其微。”
She argued that Canada can work with other nations negatively affected by US trade policies.
她认为，加拿大可以与其他受美国贸易政策负面影响的国家合作。
retaliation
n.报复；反击
