In Episode 130, we welcome Eric Falkenstein. The show starts with Meb and Eric discussing ice fishing in Minnesota (where Eric is currently located). But then Meb asks for Eric’s origin story. Eric tells us about being a teacher’s assistant for Hyman Minsky, wanting to be a macro economist, the turn that pushed him toward investing, and a well-timed put option that made him a boatload in the ’87 crash.
Next, the conversation turns toward Eric’s interest in low volatility. He tells us about being one of the first people to study low-vol. He was early, and the broader investing community wasn’t ready for the findings. People dismissed the suggestion that high volatility stocks (with high risk) didn’t outperform low vol stocks. Eric tells us that given all this, “low vol” wasn’t enough of a selling point – you had to layer on another factor just to get people to pay attention.
Meb asks about the main value proposition of low-vol. It is a smoother ride? Better returns? And why does this factor persist?
Eric’s answer touches on CAPM, high beta, low beta, risk, various premiums, high flying stocks, and alpha discovery. This bleeds into a conversation about factoring timing relative to valuations. Eric tells us he tried factor timing, but didn’t find it to be too helpful out of sample.
The conversation bounces around a bit, with the guys touching on Meb’s paper, “A Quantitative Approach to Asset Allocation,” bonds and how the US is flirting with the top bucket of bond yields, whether low vol translates to global markets and different asset classes, and Eric’s take on risk parity.
After that, the guys turn to crypto. Despite the current pullback, Eric believes “in the long run, it’s going to work.” He believes that crypto will eventually replace Dollars as people will want an alternative to fiat currency, something not susceptible to manipulation by politicians. He tells us that he sees a tipping point coming.
There’s plenty more in this episode – Eric’s books, pithy quotes and maxims, how people often think about the specific investment they want, but not the “plumbing” such as the bid/ask spread of that investment, the volume, and so on… And as always, Eric’s most memorable trade.
Get all the details in Episode 130.
Hendrik Bessembinder - Do Stocks Outperform T-Bills? | #532
GMO's Catherine LeGraw - Capitalizing on Global Asset Allocation in 2024 | #531
Professor Kenneth French on Risk, Return, and Rationality | #530
MEBISODE: T-Bills and Chill…Most of the Time | #529
Cliff Asness: Timely & Timeless Investment Wisdom | #528
Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy | #527
MEBISODE: Should CalPERS Fire Everyone And Just Buy Some ETFs? | #526
Grant Williams & Peter Atwater: The Market is 'Long Abstraction, Short Reality' | #525
Tim Ranzetta, NGPF - Teaching America Personal Finance | #524
Whitney Baker on The Death of (Upside) American Exceptionalism | #523
How to Convert an SMA to an ETF with Wes Gray & Robert Elwood | #522
MEBISODE: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing
GMO's Tina Vandersteel on a "Once-in-a-Generation" Opportunity | #521
Drew Dickson on Navigating Behavioral Biases, U.S. vs. European Stocks, & Tesla | #520
Ben Mackovak on The Secret Sauce of Investing in Banks | #519
Jared Dillian on the Keys to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life | #518
Bruno Caratori - The Bitcoin ETF is FINALLY Approved. Now What? | #517
BlackRock's Rick Rieder on The State of Markets & The US Debt Problem | #516
Felix Zulauf – 2024 Macro Outlook Not Rosy | #515
Liz Simmie, Honeytree – A Quantamental Approach to ESG | #514
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