Trump’s Iran Decision Looms. Did I Just Solve Immigration?! (with Andrew Heaton)

The big headline, of course, this week is Iran. The White House says Iran has everything it needs to build a nuclear weapon. That’s where we are. Trump has about two weeks to decide whether to launch an attack. The reporting right now focuses on what kind of strike it would take to actually stop the program — could our bunker busters get the job done, or are those centrifuges buried so deep we’d need to soften the ground with conventional bombs first? There’s even been talk — not a plan, just a technical example — of how only a tactical nuke could fully destroy Fordo. That’s not where we’re at, but it tells you how seriously the Pentagon is gaming this out.

And honestly, I don’t see a deal coming. Iran’s regime can’t afford it. Giving up the nuke means giving up the one thing that lets them project power, and domestically, it would be political suicide. You don’t stay in charge in Tehran by backing down on Israel and nukes — not unless you’re planning an escape to Moscow and retirement in a palace somewhere. That’s not happening. My bet: Fordo gets hit. And when it does, the question is what follows.

The Elon-MAGA Rift Deepens

Meanwhile, Elon Musk continues his very public, very messy split with Trump World. After his earlier apology tour seemed to smooth things over, Musk reignited tensions by calling Trump advisor Sergio Gore a “snake.” This all goes back to their feud over NASA leadership and White House staffing — and it’s clear Musk isn’t letting it go. Vice President JD Vance jumped in to defend Gore, and the White House insists Gore is fully cleared and doing his job. The result? Elon drifts further from the MAGA core. He wanted to be at the table, but he keeps setting fire to the chairs.

And look, this is classic Elon. He’s always clashed with people he once partnered with — OpenAI, Trump, now Gore. He moves fast, burns bridges, and expects to build new ones just as quickly. But politics isn’t tech. There’s only so many seats at the table, and right now, he’s playing himself out of them.

ICE Raids, Reversals, and the Trump Balancing Act

Immigration remains the other pressure point. Trump’s team initially paused ICE raids targeting agriculture and hospitality — a move that shocked his hardline base. But now they’re back on, with priority given to workers with criminal records. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, is clear: enforcement continues, but it’s targeted. The message to farmers? There are legal ways to hire, and if Congress won’t fix the system, they’ll enforce the laws that exist.

It’s classic Trump tension: the balance between policy purity and practical impact. He built his coalition on immigration hard lines and anti-interventionism. That’s what set him apart. Now, those promises are being tested — at home and abroad. And we’re about to see how far he’s willing to push before the cracks show.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:51 - Iran

00:05:29 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton

00:26:54 - Update

00:27:27 - Elon

00:31:07 - ICE Raids

00:33:43 - Solving Immigration with Andrew Heaton, con’t

01:00:42 - Wrap-up

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