In Episode 359 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Economist Lacy Hunt about America’s national savings and debt crisis. Dr. Hunt is the Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He previously served as Chief U.S. Economist for the HSBC Group, as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Fidelity Bank, and as Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas during the course of a 55-year career studying markets and the economy.
In the first hour, Lacy Hunt shares his broad assessment of how the global economy is doing and the monetary and cyclical economic indicators he relies on to make that assessment. He and Demetri discuss the increased role of the US Treasury as an economic policy actor in the post-pandemic period and the concerning decline in the net national savings rate. They also discuss whether the neutral rate of interest, a hotly debated topic among economists, is moving lower, and what this means for trend growth, interest rates, and inflation.
In the second hour, Dr. Hunt explains why he believes that the Fed has been able to raise interest rates by more than 500 basis points in less than two years without inducing a recession. Is this because other causal factors have remained more accommodative, or have the lags just grown longer and more variable, and if so, why? What does this tell us about the business cycle and the effectiveness of monetary policy? He and Demetri also discuss the chronically high fiscal deficits and the implications of trying to reduce them in an environment where the economy is becoming more dependent on government spending to boost economic growth, support critical national investments in energy and defense, and contribute to the private savings of the economy. Finally, Lacy Hunt explains why he believes that demographics are destiny and how trends in population growth, fertility rates, and family formation in many developed countries will impact growth and inflation in the years to come.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Episode Recorded on 03/26/2024
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Global Macro in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Demetri Kofinas
American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict | Elbridge Colby
What’s Driving the Price of Oil? A Supply-Side Story | Rory Johnston
Turkish-Greek Relations & Battle Over the Eastern Mediterranean | Ryan Gingeras
Rise of Shadow Banking & Risks of a Financial Crisis | Lev Menand
Energy Geopolitics & the Remaking of the Modern World | Helen Thompson
Value Investing & How to Have “Soul in the Game" | Vitaliy Katsenelson
The Power of Crisis & How to Fight a Geopolitical Recession | Ian Bremmer
How to Trade Market Sentiment & Why Inflation Is Coming Down | Jared Dillian
The Path Towards Self-Actualization & How to Overcome Your Fears | Demetri Kofinas
The Revenge of Risk Rates & the Return of Dividend Investing | Daniel Peris
How to Trade the Great Rotation From Big Tech to Commodities | Tony Greer
Revenge of the Dollar & the Meltdown in Global Markets | Brent Johnson
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The New Era of Great Power Competition | John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt
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The End of the Beginning for Crypto | Michael Anderson & Vance Spencer of Framework Ventures
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