Shock, Pressure, and Encirclement: Colonel Oguntoye on the December 12 Operational Picture

Precision meets patience as we unpack a week where long-range strikes and methodical ground advances work in concert to reshape Ukraine’s defensive map. We open with the operational design: sustained missile and drone attacks on industry, energy, airfields, ports, and UAV launch nodes that aim to throttle force generation. From there, we track how ground forces exploit these effects, pressing encirclements, liberating settlements, and eroding mechanized formations while winter constrains mobility and resupply.

On the northern front, the capture of Lyman becomes a lever, adding pressure on Kharkiv–Sumy belts already strained by depot losses and counterbattery degradation. The Oskol River pocket shows the strategy in micro: contain and starve, then strike. As diverse Ukrainian units rotate in to hold fractured lines, the pocket’s cohesion thins, and each destroyed radar or depot widens the attacker’s options. In Donetsk, incremental gains turn geometric, pushing defenses westward and hinting at corridors for broader maneuver. Zaporizhia adds an important layer: the reported loss of EW stations and M777 systems shifts the artillery duel, reducing targeting speed and counterbattery confidence.

We also explore the Dnieper axis, where lower numbers belied strategic impact, and we assess the air picture, including sustained missile pressure and a downed Su-27 that signals localized Russian air advantages. Threaded through all of it is the winter factor: colder roads, slower resupply, and reduced recovery windows that magnify the effects of precision strikes on logistics and ISR. Put together, the week suggests an engineered imbalance designed to set favorable conditions for larger maneuvers in early 2026, not through a single dramatic push but through months of accumulated degradation.

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