Doc returns from sabbatical for this Master Class and delivers updated interpretations of Finite Voltage, Crowd-In Behavior, and his newest concept of "Failure to Regress to the Mean" to describe the current condition of society. Read the full blog post for episode #149 at safetyphd.com TACTICAL WISDOM. David begins with sharing a recent post by Joe Dolio at tactical-wisdom.com. Joe offers a heavy dose of face validity in sharing his observations of the greater Detroit area including photos of a WalMart that removed all guns and ammunition as a “precaution” in the event the store was compromised during election-related civil unrest. Increased outward-facing lighting at a power substation was another image that warned that corporations and municipalities are anticipating a collapse of law and order in the coming weeks. PRAIRIE FIRE. Author Clay Martin, a previous guest on The Safety Doc Podcast, released another “essential reading” book on October 15th. Per Clay, “Prairie Fire is a guide for Red Counties to survive and thrive during what looks to be another Civil War brewing. Drawing on his experience in Special Forces with counter insurgency, the author creates a step by step road map to making it out alive.” Doc will review the book in a future podcast. WHAT IS REGRESSION TO THE MEAN? It’s a concept (actually a tendency) from statistics and means that things tend to return to “average” over time. Doc describes that American’s expectation for similarity, or that their days tend to be the same, was interrupted in mid-March with COVID19 lockdowns, exacerbated with civil unrest in the summer, and will be even further distorted with pending Presidential election protests, riots, and potential legal battles. There is no evidence that Americans’ lives are regressing to the mean - or returning to some form of similarity. This is a precarious, unsettling situation that is already amplified by Finite Voltage and Crowd-in Behavior. Dr. Perrodin notes that while we are accustomed to life “bouncing back” in a matter of days, we need to prepare for many months, or even years, until our lives regress to the mean - something last experienced by Americans in the latter 1930s. SPORTS ILLUSTRATED JINX. One example of regression to the mean is the infamous Sports Illustrated cover jinx. The jinx states that whoever appears on the cover of SI is going to have a poor following year (or years). But the “jinx” is actually regression towards the mean. Player’s make the cover after an exceptional year and it’s statistically unlikely that they will either repeat that performance or improve upon it. FOLLOW DR. PERRODIN: Twitter @SafetyPhD and subscribe to The Safety Doc YouTube channel & Apple Podcasts. SAFETY DOC WEBSITE & BLOG: www.safetyphd.com. The Safety Doc Podcast is hosted & produced by David Perrodin, PhD. ENDORSEMENTS. Opinions are those of the host & guests. The show seeks to bring forward productive discourse on topics relevant to personal or community safety. This is episode 149 of The Safety Doc Podcast published on 10-30-2020.
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Negative Expectation Bias | When All News is Bad News | The Velocity of Information | SDP 181
Smoky Mountains Wildfire | The Collapse of Physical Time | The Velocity of Information | SDP180
Juan Browne | Oroville Dam and Citizen-As-Journalist | The Velocity of Information | SDP179
Propaganda Clone | How Zelenskyy Modernized FDR’s Fireside Chat | Velocity of Information | SDP178
Measuring the Wet Bulb Effect on Attention and Information | The Velocity of Information | SDP177
Deep Fakes and False Takes | The Velocity of Information | David P. Perrodin | SDP176
Breaking Parkinson’s Law in Chicago | The Velocity of Information | David P. Perrodin | SDP175
Crisis vs. Chaos | Bifurcation and Strange Attractors | The Velocity of Information | SDP174
Comorbid Chaos | 90 Days of Uncertain Times | Velocity of Information | David P. Perrodin | SDP173
Conjunction Fallacy | The Velocity of Information: Human Thinking During Chaotic Times | SDP172
Unpacking Normal Box Theory | Perception of Normality is Everything | Guest Lee Jarvis | SDP171
Josh the Locksmith | Security 101 and Avoiding Scams | Worst Locksmith Experiences | SDP170
The Braess Paradox | Psychological Impact of I35W Bridge Collapse on Driving Behavior | SDP169
Truckers Getting Trounced | Essentially Forgotten Freight Haulers | Guest Jonathan Burger | SDP168
Community Civic Organizations Vanishing | Jaycees, Lions, Kiwanis, & Rotary Fading Fast | SDP167
Do Sports Keep Kids Out Of Trouble? | How About E-Sports? | What the Research Says | SDP166
3D Printing | The Future Has Arrived | 3D Printers For Every Home | Guest flyingRich | SDP165
Loki the Chaos God | Blaming the Norse Mythology Trickster Straw Man for Life’s Woes | SDP164
New CDC K-12 Changes | Test to Stay for Schools | What You Should Know About Consent | SDP163
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