Feeling particularly reflective as the US electoral process inches toward a conclusion, Allan and Darren chat about what they see as the short- and long-term challenges facing Australian foreign policy. In the short term, the bilateral relationship with China looms largest. Allan makes that case that the Prime Minister (or Foreign Minister) should make a speech clearly outlining Australia’s position, while Darren wonders whether the PM has already said what he wants to say. And what specific diplomatic moves available to the government? Darren offers some thoughts on whether the ongoing trade disruptions are simply coercion, or whether other geoeconomic or industry policy motives may be a factor. The two also debate the distinction between “the Chinese government” and “the CCP”, and compare it to distinguishing the Trump administration from the United States as a whole.
The other major short-term issue discussed is cooperation with Australia’s regional partners, Southeast Asia in particular. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may offer an opportunity for Australia to develop deeper ties, though Darren raises whether shared security interests are a necessary condition for really substantive cooperation. He also speculates on whether Australia’s experience with economic coercion and protecting against foreign interference could be a useful source of advice, while Allan counters that Asian nations have been grappling with these questions for decades, even centuries! Allan also previews PM Morrison’s trip to Japan this week.
Looking to the longer term, Allan and Darren describe a range of possible futures, the kinds of investment strategies Australia could pursue now to prepare for future challenges, and potential risks to a long-term strategy.
We thank AIIA intern Mitchell McIntosh for his help with research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant Links
PM Lee Hsien Loong gave the keynote address at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue Opening Dinner on 31 May 2019 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore: https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-at-the-IISS-Shangri-La-Dialogue-2019
Lee Hsien Loong, “The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2020-06-04/lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century
Stephen Dziedzic, “Scott Morrison unveils Government plans to reassert Australia's influence in South-East Asia”, ABC News, 14 November 2020: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-14/australia-canberra-new-aid-south-east-asia-scott-morrison/12883088
Joe Biden, “Why American must lead again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again
Government of Victoria, “Victorian Pledge For Institute Of Infectious Disease”, 13 November 2020: https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/victorian-pledge-institute-infectious-disease
Tim Alberta, “Elissa Slotkin Braces for a Democratic Civil War”, 13 November 2020: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/13/elissa-slotkin-braces-for-a-democratic-civil-war-436301
David French, Divided we fall: America’s secession threat and how to restore our nation”, Pan Macmillan Australia: https://www.panmacmillan.com.au/9781250201973/
Ezra Klein podcast interview with Evan Osnos, “Joe Biden, explained”, 7 November 2020: https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast/2020/11/7/21554198/joe-biden-evan-osnos-president-2020-election-white-house-donald-trump
Little Red Podcast, “Xi Dada and Daddy: Power, the Party and the President”, 2 November 2020: https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/xi-dada-and-daddy-power-the-party-and-the-presiden?in_playlist=the-little-red-podcast!podcast
“P.E. with Joe”, Monday 23 March 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz0go1pTda8
Ep. 47: Heather Smith on fixing the G20, industrial policy, tech competition, and what economists get wrong
Ep. 46: Australia-China tensions over a Covid-19 inquiry
Ep. 45: The WHO; “mask diplomacy”; DFAT & Covid-19
Ep. 44: The United States, and the alliance
Ep. 43: The consequences of Covid-19
Ep. 42: Covid-19 update; ASIO speaks; Morrison hosts Jokowi & Ardern
Ep. 41: Richard Maude on the Indo-Pacific, models of world politics, and Australian foreign policy
Ep. 40: Coronavirus; Huawei in the UK; the WTO, and UK / EU trade deals
Ep. 39: The 2020 Raisina Dialogue
Ep. 38: Gordon de Brouwer on economics vs security, climate change, and effective policymaking
Ep. 37: The bushfires, internationally; the Soleimani killing; reviewing 2019, looking ahead to 2020
Ep. 36: Ex-ASIO head Duncan Lewis (Part 2): foreign interference and national security policymaking in Australia
Ep. 35: Ex-ASIO head Duncan Lewis (Part 1): on his military & govt career, and the challenge of terrorism
Ep. 34: All things China (again)! Defectors? Sleeper agents? MP visas & Hong Kong
Ep. 33: US leadership: vision vs reality; RCEP; human rights in China; Syria, the Kurds and US credibility
Ep. 32: The Australia-China Relationship
Ep. 31: Debating PM Morrison’s Lowy Lecture
Ep. 30: Australia’s High Commissioners to Solomon Islands and Samoa discuss diplomacy in the Pacific
Ep. 29: PM Morrison visits the Trump White House; prisoners in Iran; energy security; a visit by Fiji’s PM; climate change
Ep. 28: PM’s trips to Vietnam & the G7; alliance management in the Gulf; Kashmir; PNG
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