What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?
Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
GGWP 20 w/ Manas Chawla - London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy
GGWP 19 w/ David McCullough - Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter!
GGWP 18 w/ David Manheim - Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials
GGWP 17 w/ John Fowler: International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting
Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 16 w/ Satopää and Salikhov - BIN Model of Forecasting (Bias, Information, Noise)
Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 15 w/ Phillip Orchard - Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods
How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 14 w/ Gaia Dempsey - An Interview with the CEO of Metaculus
GGWP 13 - A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict
GGWP 12 w/ Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast - Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics
GGWP 11 w/ Tom Liptay and Michael Story - Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption
How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right | The Right Side of Maybe
How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 8 w/ Pavel Atanasov - Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting
How Peter Hurford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 7 w/ Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results
Copyright © 2006-2021 Podbean.com