What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right?
Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President.
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A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022
✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20)
David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19)
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18)
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17)
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16)
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack
An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14)
A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13)
Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12)
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11)
✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right
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