David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by David Ranson, President of HCWE & Co. HCWE has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe.
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With the uneven roll-out of Covid19 vaccines around the world this year, there is a wider than usual range of forecasts for economic growth and inflation both in 2021 and in 2022. From an investment standpoint a lot depends on the outlook for the US economy. David Ranson explains the difference in the work of HCWE and his evidence for doubting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies conducted during 2020. He doubts whether stimulus programmes stimulate output. He explains that productivity cannot be used to forecast the economy – you need to look at leading indicators that work during a crisis e.g. VIX index. He states that the economy has shown a great amount of resilience, both in the US and throughout the developed world. ‘Everyone was talking about a recession, but it was nothing like a normal recession. There was an enormous drop in output but it bounced back very quickly, which is quite unlike a recession. What we had was a Great Interruption.’
Please note that slides are available alongside this podcast upon request from the Independent Research Forum (caroline@independentresearchforum.com).
"Is the Game up for the UK Economy?" Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
"Top Trades Around the World in 2021" Damanick Dantes, Dantes Outlook
"The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2021" Kathleen Kelley, Queen Anne's Gate Capital
"Do Markets Face a Potential 'Minsky' Moment Collapse?" Ron William, RW Advisory
"Biden, Brexit and the Pandemic in 2021 & 2022" Helen Thomas, Blonde Money
IRF Update 2021 Q1
"Video Gaming Sector: Highlights of 2020 and Thoughts on 2021" Eric Kress, Gossamer Consulting Group
"If There is a Year to Be Long Risk, it is 2021!" Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Dwor-Frecaut Macro
"US Politics and Economics in 2021: The Establishment Strikes Back" Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal Economics
"The Big Liquidity Story" Michael Howell, CrossBorder Capital
"China's Development Plans for 2021-2035" Charles Hess, Inferential Focus
"How ESG Investing Can Consistently Generate Alpha" François Boutin-Dufresne, Sustainable Market Strategies
"The Existential Threat Facing the European Union in 2021 and 2022" Brunello Rosa, Rosa & Roubini Associates
"The Outlook for Inflation: The Impact of Regime Change" Peter Warburton, Economic Perspectives
"The US Economy: Advancing without Effective Monetary or Fiscal Policy" David Ranson, HCWE
"The Five Phases of Empire" David Murrin, Global Forecaster
"China's Plan for the Next 5 Years" William Hess, PRC Macro
"The Outlook from Washington - Biden or Trump? The Policy Implications" James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners
"Rising Long-term Bond Yields and Their Portfolio Implications" Michael Belkin, The Belkin Report
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