Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast
Business:Investing
Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This is an important episode!
NOTES
Jarrow R, Yildirim Y (2003) Pricing treasury inflation protected securities and related derivatives using an HJM model. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38(2):337–359. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=585828
Unidad de Fomento (Wikipedia entry): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidad_de_Fomento
Chart: Nominal and inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller 10-City index, normalized to end of 2019
Chart: Nominal and Real S&P 500 Earnings, normalized to end of 2019
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Ep. 70: ’Greedflation’ - I See the ’Flation But is There Greed?
Ep. 69: This Month’s CPI Report - Rents and Wages Aren’t Falling!
Ep.68: Great Traders, and How the Inflation Guy Could Be Wrong
Ep. 67: Three-point Goal? Or go for Two? (Percent)
Ep. 66: De-dollarization - Should We Worry? with Andy Fately
Ep. 65: This Month’s CPI Report - Sing a New Song Unto the ’Board
Ep. 64: Will the Money Supply Decline Save Our Inflationary Bacon?
Ep. 63: A Bitter Pill
Ep. 62: There’s Nothing Wrong With the Phillips Curve!
Ep. 61: This Month’s CPI Report - Good, Not Great
Ep. 60: Inflation and Insurance Companies, with Bill Poutsiaka
Ep. 59: Delta - Not So Arcane
Ep. 58: ”You Fell Victim to One of the Classic Blunders!”
Ep. 57: This Month’s CPI - Not What the Fed Needed!
Ep. 56: A New Way to Trade Inflation
Ep. 55: Models Gone Bad
Ep. 54: Will Artificial Intelligence Kill Inflation?
Ep. 53: This Month’s CPI Report - Sticky Categories Are Still Sticky
Ep. 52: State of Inflation Address
Ep. 51: Should You Care About the CPI Re-weighting?
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