The Next War

Wars often begin when one nation calculates that another is so weak, or so isolated, that aggression can be successfully undertaken without significant cost.

Such a calculation may have prompted Communist China to declare last week that its permission will be required for foreign airplanes to transit an area that includes contested, but Japanese-controlled, islands.
Japan says its passenger airlines won’t do that. And the United States just flew unannounced two bombers through this new Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone.

While commendable, these symbolic gestures are unlikely to change Beijing’s assessment that it can take on Japan and deter a United States that is, under President Obama, rapidly dismantling the military capabilities needed to protect our ally.

And that’s how the next, devastating – and, until recently, preventable – war may soon begin.