This week Allan and Darren try to step back from Covid-19, and have a long-planned conversation about the United States: its domestic politics, its role in the world, and the state of the alliance relationship with Australia. Allan begins by asking Darren for his assessment of what’s happening inside the US right now, amid an upcoming presidential election, the challenge of the coronavirus, and of course the non-stop news cycle that is the Trump presidency. How much will Covid-19 affect the presidential campaign? The two discuss the bipartisan hardening of attitudes towards China, the near-complete absence of US leadership during the Covid-19 crisis, and how much of the damage to Washington’s global reputation might be washed away if Trump loses in November.
Turning to the alliance, Allan draws upon his recent book—Fear of Abandonment—to provide background and context to the bilateral relationship from Australia’s perspective. Darren wonders whether the alliance matters much as a formal treaty, or whether the shared interests and values of the two nations are sufficient both to sustain cooperation, and draw them together in a crisis. Next, Allan analyses Lowy poll data showing that Australians trust the United States less, but still seem to agree that we need the alliance. Looking ahead, what will the likely frictions be between Canberra and Washington, and should Australia constantly be looking to do “more” to enhance the relationship? Thinking about the practice of Australian foreign policy, is managing the alliance relationship different to managing relations with China? And finally, do we know enough now to make an assessment of the future capability and resolve of the United States to be active in our region, as Hugh White’s recent book argues we must?
As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj
We thank AIIA intern Maddie Gordon for her help with research and audio editing, XC Chong for research support, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music.
Relevant links
Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/fear-abandonment
Joe Biden, “Why America must lead again: Rescuing U.S. foreign policy after Trump”, Foreign Affairs, January 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again
Natasha Kassam, Lowy Institute Poll 2019: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/lowy-institute-poll-2019
Charles Edel and John Lee, “The future of the US-Australia alliance in an era of great power competition”, United States Studies Centre, 13 June 2019: https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-future-of-the-us-australia-alliance-in-an-era-of-great-power-competition
Michael Green and Andrew Shearer, “Countering China’s militarization of the Indo-Pacific”, War on the Rocks, 23 April 2018: https://warontherocks.com/2018/04/countering-chinas-militarization-of-the-indo-pacific/
Hugh White, How to defend Australia: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia
Ezra Klein Show, Interview with Evan Osnos: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/31/21200192/coronavirus-china-donald-trump-the-ezra-klein-show
Peter Hessler “The Peace Corps Breaks Ties with China’, The New Yorker, 9 March 2020: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/16/the-peace-corps-breaks-ties-with-china
Peter Hessler, River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze: https://www.harpercollins.com/9780060855024/river-town/
Flow State (newsletter): https://flowstate.substack.com/
Ep. 71: Myanmar—tragedy, complexity & power; PNG & Covid-19; Dutton to Defence
Ep. 70: Alaska, “competitive co-existence” & duelling sanctions; Quad outcomes; OECD Cormann
Ep. 69: Biden’s early days; Quad; Pacific Islands Forum
Ep. 68: Natasha Kassam on preparing for a China-led world
Ep. 67: NZ-China-Australia; Myanmar; Xi's WEF speech; Australia-Malaysia CSP
Ep. 66: Revisiting the Capitol; a declassified Indo-Pacific strategy; Five Countries (!), & fresh ideas for Aussie FP?
Ep. 65: Processing events at the U.S. Capitol
Ep. 64: A cabinet reshuffle, politician ambassadors, the Richardson Review and summer homework
Ep. 63: Climate change and Australia, with Howard Bamsey
Ep. 62: A wild week in Australia-China relations
Ep. 61: Short- and long-term questions for Australian foreign policy
Ep. 60: US election rapid reactions
Ep. 59: Malabar and an emerging balancing coalition; Senator Abetz and loyalty tests; diplomacy and quarantine
Ep. 58: Mailbag! US failures; fearing abandonment; the Quad & democracy; grading China policy; DFAT in 2050
Ep. 57: Foreign interference & the Australia-China relationship; trilaterals; PM Suga; Thai protests
Ep. 56: Aussie journalists depart China (and other bilateral tensions); Foreign Relations Bill; Abe’s legacy; Tony Abbott
Ep. 55: Richard Maude returns (Part 2): China, models of cooperation, & what Australian foreign policy can do
Ep. 54: Richard Maude returns (Part 1), and Darren in the Beirut Blast
Ep. 53: Consulate closures & deteriorating US-China relations; AUSMIN; Defence Strategic Update
Ep. 52: ABC journalist Stephen Dziedzic on reporting Australian foreign policy, media-govt relations, and the Wolverines
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