Raisin Industry Legends Warn of Challenges and Chart a Path Forward

The October 2 edition of the AgNet News Hour was dedicated to the raisin industry — past, present, and future. Hosts Nick Papagni and Josh McGill sat down with three icons of the raisin world: Kalem Barsarian, longtime president of the Raisin Bargaining Association, Dwayne Cardoza, current vice chairman of the RBA, and Mark McCormick, CEO of National Raisins.

Barsarian gave a sweeping history lesson, recalling how raisins were once California’s pride crop, producing more than 400,000 tons a year. But today, production has slipped under 200,000 tons annually, dropping California from the world’s number one producer to fourth — and possibly soon fifth — behind Turkey and others. He explained that land once planted with Thompson seedless grapes has been converted to more profitable crops like pistachios and almonds.

Cardoza detailed the financial pressures facing growers. This year, the RBA offered processors $2,020 per ton, the same as last year, despite growers’ costs rising by 10–15%. With rains causing additional crop damage, many growers face negative returns. He warned that without price increases and vineyard modernization, many will exit the industry. “The Thompson seedless raisin is a thing of the past,” Cardoza said, pointing to new earlier-ripening varieties and dry-on-the-vine systems as the only way forward.

McCormick brought the processor’s perspective, stressing the symbiotic relationship between packers and farmers. National Raisins supplies 85% of U.S. retail private label raisins and must hold firm on pricing despite pushback from major grocery chains. He described the challenge of competing with subsidized Turkish raisins, produced under much lower safety and labor standards, while California growers face some of the strictest regulations in the world.

Despite the challenges, all three guests emphasized opportunities. USDA programs, including crop insurance, market access funds, and school lunch purchases, remain crucial. They also highlighted the need for aggressive marketing to new generations of consumers, positioning raisins as a healthy, convenient snack. As McCormick put it, “It has to be sustainable — not just environmentally, but economically.”

The takeaway for California growers: the raisin industry isn’t dead, but it must adapt. With innovation, marketing, and political engagement, raisins can remain a vital part of the Central Valley’s farming landscape.