In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human forecasters against machine models to predict COVID-19 clinical trials.
War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting (GGWP 10)
✅ How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines
Pavel Atanasov on Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting (GGWP 8)
Saar Wilf on What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo (GGWP 6)
US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions (GGWP 5)
Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021, Road to Superforecasting (GGWP 2)
Ross of ARGS of Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare (GGWP4)
Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue (GGWP 3)
Dr. Balkan Devlen on Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives (GGWP 1)
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