Markets Happy Hour - November 28 - Thanksgiving Edition

This Thanksgiving 2024 it seems appropriate to reflect on where we were this time last year and what we have to be thankful for:

• Inflation - being in check and certainly in reverse since one year ago
• Economic Growth - steady as she goes, although struggling in Europe Mortgage Rates - slowly tracking downwards although far from last year's 22 year high (USA)
• The US election campaign is over - regardless of the outcome, the end of the campaigns in this Election Year like no other is something to behold
• Soft landing - the fact that we have had one, should not be taken for granted

We then move to look at some of the positive developments around employment and house prices in the US, the negative headlines around France and Germany and how we are trying to figure out tariffs and they likely impact.

Incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has an interesting take on tariffs- claiming they are not inflationary as they do not put more money into circulation but merely take it from one expenditure and towards another. This is an intriguing perspective, which may underestimate the ability of the consumer to borrow to plug a gap if higher prices stretch them more or of their ability to drain savings to do the same.

Overall looking at history is not as instructive as usual these days, given the fact that inverted yield curves, rate hiking cycles and soft landings did not play out as the history books might have suggested.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

 

Market Banter, not investment advice.