How to Predict the Future of Geopolitics with Marko Papic

Interview recorded - 08/12/2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Marko Papic, Partner & Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, as well as author of the book “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”.

During our conversation we spoke about the greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics, the importance of the median voter, whether China’s bearishness has gone too far and keeping emotions outside of investing. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:25 - Greatest misconceptions individuals have about Geopolitics?
3:25 - Why is the median voter important and what influence do they have?
6:10 - Do central banks also have constraints based on Median Voter?
10:00 - Differences between preferences and constraints?
13:31 - Any other broader constraints not getting enough attention?
17:00 - China aggression overstated?
20:25 - How would you use framework to take a position?
23:40 - Multiple variables impacting certain position
24:40 - Has China bearishness gone too far?
28:40 - Should you overcomplicate the trade?
31:50 - Most of the capital comes from the US and China
33:05 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?
34:55 - Keeping emotions outside of investing

Marko Papic is a partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm. He leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Previously, Mr. Papic founded BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy practice, the financial industry’s first dedicated political analysis investment strategy, which generated “geopolitical alpha” by identifying gaps between the market’s political expectations and the firm’s forecasts. He served as a senior vice president and the chief geopolitical strategist at the firm. Mr. Papic began his career as a senior analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm’s global geopolitical strategy and its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Mr. Papic is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, a book that introduces the constraint-based framework to investors. He earned an MA in political science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia

Marko Papic - 

Book - https://amzn.to/3uEDPV0
Twitter - https://twitter.com/Geo_papic
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
China Research - https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro

WTFinance - 

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