Join Ads Marketplace to earn through podcast sponsorships.
Manage your ads with dynamic ad insertion capability.
Monetize with Apple Podcasts Subscriptions via Podbean.
Earn rewards and recurring income from Fan Club membership.
Get the answers and support you need.
Resources and guides to launch, grow, and monetize podcast.
Stay updated with the latest podcasting tips and trends.
Check out our newest and recently released features!
Podcast interviews, best practices, and helpful tips.
The step-by-step guide to start your own podcast.
Create the best live podcast and engage your audience.
Tips on making the decision to monetize your podcast.
The best ways to get more eyes and ears on your podcast.
Everything you need to know about podcast advertising.
The ultimate guide to recording a podcast on your phone.
Steps to set up and use group recording in the Podbean app.
Join Ads Marketplace to earn through podcast sponsorships.
Manage your ads with dynamic ad insertion capability.
Monetize with Apple Podcasts Subscriptions via Podbean.
Earn rewards and recurring income from Fan Club membership.
Get the answers and support you need.
Resources and guides to launch, grow, and monetize podcast.
Stay updated with the latest podcasting tips and trends.
Check out our newest and recently released features!
Podcast interviews, best practices, and helpful tips.
The step-by-step guide to start your own podcast.
Create the best live podcast and engage your audience.
Tips on making the decision to monetize your podcast.
The best ways to get more eyes and ears on your podcast.
Everything you need to know about podcast advertising.
The ultimate guide to recording a podcast on your phone.
Steps to set up and use group recording in the Podbean app.
欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度,雪球,国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台,聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好,我是主播匪石-34,今天分享的内容叫债务、通胀和黄金,来自king的碎片集。
如何解决60万亿的城投债,我推演的结果还是靠通胀,那么很多人可能会觉得,从日本的历史看,通胀解决不了,比如日本的人口老龄化,通胀始终起不来,过去三四十年一直都在通货紧缩,日本央行黔驴技穷,不但自己下场买国债,而且大肆到股市上买ETF基金,即便这样,货币还是贷不出去,通胀还是起不来。
我觉得不能够完全参照日本,最主要有两个原因,第1个原因是因为日本在蒙代尔不可能三角中选择了自主的货币政策和自由兑换的外汇制度,放弃了控制汇率,那么这种情况下,无论日本央行利用债券或者股市放出多少货币,要么就根本没有适格借款人,要不就是国际借款人借日元套利,借出日元之后拿去投资美股或者美债,然后等日元进一步贬值之后还日元,轻松套利,过去三四十年都是这个游戏,现在这个游戏到了终章,日本国债一半以上都是日本央行在购买,维持不下去了。
但是不要以为我们不能让通胀起来,因为我们的外汇不能自由兑换的,印出来的钞票是不能换成美元去做套利的,只能在国内通胀,不管是直接给居民发钱,还是提高关键的水电煤气费用,都是可以让通胀起来的,一个面包从10块钱涨价到20块钱,60万亿的债务就会变成30万亿,当然这个涨价的速度要控制好,太快不行。
还有一个更重要的原因,就是逆全球化以及全球的债务高企,日本1990年代陷入资产负债表衰退,但是当时全球化正进行的如火如荼,全世界大把大把的高收益投资机会,借出来日元就能轻松在别的地方赚钱。可是现在是逆全球化的时代,重构供应链,重构大宗商品供应链,我们正在进入一个以10年以上为期的全球大通胀时代。不要听美联储动不动信誓旦旦说要控制通胀,美联储只是控制通胀增加的速度,不能太快。不然的话,过去几年美联储印出来的钞票带来的巨额债务又通过什么化解呢?
所以全世界的央行都心照不宣,表面上使出吃奶的劲压制通胀,其实心里看到高企的通胀,心里乐开了花,终于不用财务破产了。美债收益率5%没有问题,只要通胀长期保持在7%,那就仍然保持在负利率,那债务就一直在持续削减。
普通人还是买点黄金吧,但不建议买实物黄金,实物黄金关键时刻是兑换不出来的,私人之间的买卖会打很多折,用股市账户买黄金ETF我觉得就不错,我认为未来10年黄金将大放异彩。
2026-01-21
2026-01-20
2026-01-19
2026-01-17
2026-01-16
2026-01-15
2026-01-14
2026-01-13
2026-01-12
2026-01-11
2026-01-10
2026-01-10
2026-01-08
2026-01-07
2026-01-06
2026-01-05
2026-01-04
2026-01-03
2026-01-02
2026-01-01
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free