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雪球·财经有深度

雪球·财经有深度

Business:Investing

2031.春节长假对股市的影响

2031.春节长假对股市的影响

2023-01-27
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欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度,雪球,国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台,聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好,我是主播匪石-34,今天分享的内容叫春节长假对股市的影响,来自持有封基。


历史上最长记录的指数上证指数已经有32年的过节记录了。那么在春节长假前后,股市的涨跌是否有什么规律呢?


有人说长假前大家已经没心思交易了,也有人说需要从股市里提钱出来消费,所以春节长假前股市的表现不会好。


事实真的是这样吗?


按照我的统计,32年里每年春节长假停止交易的天数差异很大,最短的是1992年,只停止了3天,最长的1999年停止了19天。最近10年里停止交易的天数在7-10天。春节长假的影响和元旦不太一样,自然年会有业绩考核的因素,所以影响会大一点。


在32年里,上证指数节前5天、节前1天、节后5天上涨的胜率均高达75%,只有节后1天的胜率略低,为59.38%。节前5天、节前1天、节后1天、节后5天全部都是上涨的,并没出现传说中的节前大跌现象。


但我们看最近几年的数据,节前5天在2018年跌了3.33%、在2020年跌了3.17%、在2022年跌了4.57%。大概是由于近因效应,所以给很多人留下了春节长假前会大跌的印象。其实2018年春节前的大跌是因为当年的熊市,2020年的大跌是因为疫情,都是有特殊情况的,经过了去年一年的下跌,今年的开局是在历年里中算是比较好的,春节长假没有特别的利空,节后相信也不会差。


我们再看最近10年的数据,节前5天、节前1天的胜率均为60%,节后1天的胜率为50%、节后50天的胜率为70%。节前节后涨幅的中位数均为正值,只有节后1天的平均涨幅为-0.33%,看具体数据也是因为在2020年节后第1天上证指数就大跌了7.72%,主要也是因为外围市场大跌叠加国内疫情发酵导致的。


虽然32年每年1次的数据量并不大,最近10年的数据更少,作为统计数据并不严谨。但至少说明一点,节前因为取钱或者无心恋战导致的下跌,在历史上并不存在,而节后行情可以更加乐观。



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