US labour market trends weaken, SA’s GDP picks up marginally

The US August labour market report was mixed. It showed an improvement in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but the number of jobs created was below the monthly average. Whether the US Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps later this month to stimulate the economy is under debate. STANLIB believes a 25 bps cut is most likely, followed by a series of others.
In Q2 2024, SA’s GDP grew by 0.4% q/q, better than the zero rate of growth in Q1, but still very weak. Growth was driven by higher electricity production, financial services and retail spending post-election. While there is no sign of broad-based growth, looming interest rate cuts, the cash released from the two-pot retirement system and public-private partnerships may stimulate the economy next year.
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