#47: 31 July 1914 IV - 'A Finger's Breadth From War'

Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.

German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was impossible to stop the mobilisation, but was this true? Sazonov might claim that mobilisation did not have to mean war, but could he guarantee this if Austrian troops invaded Serbia?

The scales were falling, but they had not yet hit the ground. Just as the Tsar could not offer clarity, the Kaiser's men were unable to confirm or deny their position on Belgian neutrality, despite knowing the importance of this question in London. Grey's diplomacy had been outpaced by the ultimata from Berlin, but as the hourglass drained, the German ambassador made a final desperate effort to leverage something, anything, which might persuade Russia to stand down. The message from Berlin was plain, even if it was inconsistently expressed - she did not want war, but felt forced into making it. Whether this message would resonate with European opinion, however, was another story.

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