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雪球·财经有深度

雪球·财经有深度

Business:Investing

2813.电力周期:从电荒到电力过剩?

2813.电力周期:从电荒到电力过剩?

2025-03-27
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欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度,雪球,国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台,聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫电力周期:从电荒到电力过剩?,来自浪里掌帆人。


电力行业的投资者很多,无论火电、核电、绿电企业,还是光伏和风电组件,都有大量的粉丝,大家都认为火电受益于煤价下跌,核电有成长,绿电有“碳中和”的使命,组件也乘着全球能源结构大变革的时代浪潮而大干快上,都有看好的理由。

但我个人认为前几年出现电荒之后,火电新批机组量很大、风电光伏在补贴退坡下引发抢装潮、水电来水恢复等因素,我国电力目前有了过剩迹象。今年以来广东和浙江的标杆电价降幅较大,发电企业面临着上网电价下降的风险。


首先,来看上网电价和电站建设的周期性

我国电力因为经济增长、能源转型、政策调控和市场机制的多重博弈,上网电价和电力建设呈现鲜明的周期性特征,这种周期往往伴随着缺电、政策放松、大力投资以及阶段性电力过剩的循环。

回顾1990年以来的四轮产能周期,均呈现出经济上行周期用电需求增速高于GDP增速,经济下行周期用电需求较GDP以更快的速度回落的规律。这是因为对外开放以来,在面对内外部冲击时,我们总是以扩张性财政政策来扩大基建投资、拉动内需。基建对高耗能工业品需求量较大,因此在经济复苏期电力需求增速比经济增速要高。

国家制定的“经济发展,电力先行”的八字方针,理想状态下电力应当适度超前规划,以满足需求。但现实中,电力投资周期和电力需求周期经常错配,出现建设滞后的情况。


在经济上行阶段电力需求快增长,发电机组利用小时数上升,极端情况下甚至出现电力或电量缺口。此时大宗商品价格也一般较高,对于火电企业来说,煤炭价格上涨使得公司利润下滑甚至亏损,此时一般不会主动大规模投资建设火电厂。

当经济景气度开始回落带动大宗商品价格下降时,火电企业预期收益率改善,在政策驱动下投资积极性回升。然而考虑到火电项目从立项审批到建成投产需要2-3年时间,待建成投产之后经济可能还处于下行期,电力需求下降,电力过剩。


其次,关于电力过剩的表现


1.风电光伏装机量大增,利用小时数下降

据东吴证券统计,2023年、2024年风光装机量持续大增。

2024全年风电利用小时数2127小时,同比下降107小时,光伏利用小时数2023年降51小时,2024年降75小时。

今年3月3日,全国新能源消纳监测预警中心公布了2025年1月各省级区域新能源并网消纳情况。2025年1月份全国风电、光伏利用率分别为94.8%、94.4%,而去年同期数据为98.3%、98.0%,全国平均弃风率从1.7%陡增至5.2%,全国弃光率从2.0%增加至5.6%。


2.大量火电建设项目即将投产

为确保能源安全,2022年国家能源局明确提出煤电“三个8000万”目标,要求2022年、2023年煤电各开工8000万千瓦、两年投产8000万千瓦,并将“十四五”煤电发展目标由12.5亿千瓦调增到13.6亿千瓦。开工目标达到上个五年计划的2倍以上。


再来看看投资金额,根据国家能源局发布每年全国电力工业统计数据,2015年火电投资金额1396亿元、2016年1174亿,逐年降至2020年的553亿,2021-2024年分别为672亿、895亿、1029亿、1500亿。看出前几年火电投资额在不断加大。


来看看最近两次火电的扩张周期。2015和2016年的大规模新批火电,投产之后刚好赶上供给侧改革煤价上行周期,2017-2019年是火电利润下降非常大的年份。

据预计,2022年全国总核准煤电装机量9000万千瓦,2023年在1亿千瓦左右,过去两年开始火电投资额开始大增,按照两年左右的建设期,今年和明年是火电的投产大年。而煤价从2022年见顶后到明年有了5年时间,有可能电厂建完后又赶上下一个煤炭的上行周期。


上一轮大规模建设火电厂,还有经济高增长来消化电力;本轮火电大规模新批,跟极端高温天气导致缺水严重,水电发电量大幅下降有关,而风电光伏也大规模建设,核电审批加快,经济比较疲软,发出的电可能没能力消化。

2024年规上企业发电量9.42万亿度,前文提到2022年和2023年核准1.9亿千瓦,按照火电平均利用小时数4400,则可以发电近8360亿度电,这个发电量是2024年发电增量的2倍。若加上核电、风光的大规模建设和水电的恢复,电力过剩明显,最终会导致电价大概率继续下行。


3.电价下降已经显现

2025年3月全国各省电网代购均价398元/MWh,同比下降4%,环比持平。

对于用电大省江苏、浙江和广东来说,年度交易价格降幅较大,降幅在5-7分/度。

以降幅最大的广东省来说,2025年广东省装机容量预计增速为11.3%,而全社会用电量增速在4%左右,电力供需状况将延续2024年的宽松格局。


由于电力开始过剩,上网电价很可能微微下降,这将对绿电和火电类发电企业有一定的冲击。



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