SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?

04:24 - A precursor for the conversation

05:21 - Industry performance update

07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective

11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"

16:06 - The results of the paper

21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference

24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted

26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?

33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?

35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?

37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change

42:52 - Different people, different perspectives

46:39 - Doing what happens next

48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data

54:54 - Thanks for listening

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