The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 6

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg talk about the hottest teams in Baseball and scour the stats to find BEST BETS for tonight and beyond!

🧠 Key Points & Insights

⚾ Dodgers' Record: 23-11, top in MLB despite a Sunday night loss. Austin Riley’s two homers were decisive.

📈 Tigers' Run Differential: 13-3 at home, 22-13 overall. Managed by A.J. Hinch, praised for non-analytic, intuitive leadership.

📊 Player OPS Standouts: Torkelson (0.889), Carpenter (0.870), Baez (0.829), Torres (0.826), Greene (0.808).

🎯 Aaron Judge Triple Crown Watch: .423 AVG, tied for MLB RBI lead (33), 2nd in HR (11). Odds: +145 to win Triple Crown.

🏅 Alonso's MVP Campaign: 13 doubles, 344 AVG, 31 RBIs. Odds: +650. Noted shift in hitting approach improving contact.

📉 Soto's Output: Criticized as underperforming with repeated mentions of uncapitalized hard contact (113.4 mph EV).

🧮 Pitching Metrics: Yamamoto praised for 2.45 xERA, elite ground ball % (15th). Brown with 1.67 ERA, expected to regress.

🔢 Weather Impact: Wind and ballpark geometry (like Yankee Stadium) analyzed for home run probability adjustments.

📉 Betting Trends: Mondays yield 60.8% overs; best home teams: Dodgers (15-3), Mets (13-3), Tigers (13-3).

🎲 Best Bets Summary: Preferred Nerfys: Yankees-Padres, Cards-Pirates, Royals-White Sox. Fade Dodgers (bullpen day) after SNB.

Summary Breakdown

1. Intro & Dodgers Discussion (0:02–1:44)

   • Seidenberg and Towers open with Cinco de Mayo reflections, pivoting to Dodgers' recent form.

   • Dodgers: 23-11 record, top in MLB. Padres (22-11) and Giants (22-13) also praised.

2. Detroit Tigers Rise (1:45–4:07)

   • Towers praises Javi Baez’s resurgence (near-.300 AVG), OPS leaders include Torkelson and Carpenter.

   • Pitching: Skubal (dominant), Mize (5-1), Flaherty (solid). Closer Tommy Kahnle: 1 ER in 12.2 IP, 5 saves.

3. Cardinals & Central Teams (4:56–6:38)

   • Cardinals swept 2 DHs but sit under .500; skepticism remains due to weak pitching and trade rumors (Nolan).

   • Cubs seen as leaders; Reds potential dark horse with Francona mentioned as MoY candidate.

4. Manager of the Year Futures (6:47–8:00)

   • Hinch: AL favorite (+180), Council NL favorite (+160), Francona (+950).

   • Towers values Hinch's preparation and "winning culture" ethos.

5. Judge Triple Crown Analysis (10:05–13:34)

   • Judge: 55/130 (.423); even 0-for-50 slump yields .306 AVG.

   • Recalled near-miss in 2024, faded due to playoff pressure.

   • Compared to Cabrera’s 2012 campaign; lauded for consistent mechanics and mentality.

6. Pete Alonso: MVP Candidacy (17:06–20:26)

   • Alonso’s evolution from HR-focused to gap-to-gap hitter detailed.

   • 344 AVG, 31 RBIs, only 8 HRs; significant reduction in K rate.

   • Towers applauds offseason work and underdog mindset.

7. Soto’s Performance Breakdown (22:48–26:18)

   • Two near-HRs vs. wall in last game; 113.4 EV, robbed once.

   • Needs to stay back and use opposite field.

   • Ex-Yankee Stadium habits analyzed as possible cause of pull-happy tendencies.

8. Advanced Stats: wOBA and xBA (26:18–30:31)

   • Overperformers: Baez (0.364 wOBA vs. 0.294 xwOBA).

   • Underperformers: Salvy Perez (.294 → .412 xwOBA), Andrew Vaughn (expected to rise).

   • Torres, Peterson noted for looming correction.

9. Pitcher Evaluations (31:13–34:38)

   • Hunter Brown: 1.67 ERA, 3.02 xERA, minimal HRs.

   • Yamamoto: 2.45 xERA, elite command; likened to Van Gogh.

   • Logan Webb, Tim Hill, and Seawald discussed for GB/FB tendencies.

10. Betting Angles and Nerfy Focus (40:00–59:13)

• Monday = best over day (60.8%), Friday next; Wednesday = top under day.

• Dodgers fade after SNB recommended; under 5.5 team total.

• Top Nerfy plays: Yankees-Padres, Cardinals-Pirates, White Sox-Royals.

• Ryan Nelson’s volatility noted; avoided Nerfy on Mets game despite Griffin Canning’s strong record.

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