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EP202 - Cyber 5 Recap with Adobe's Taylor Schreiner
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Adobe Recap
Taylor Schreiner is the Director of Adobe Digital Insights. He uses Adobe's data to give us a recap of the Cyber 5 (the five shopping days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, this year Nov 29 - Dec 2).
Adobe Holiday Dashboard
Thanksgiving 11/28 - $4.2B (up 14.5% YoY) below forecast of $4.4B Black Friday 11/29 - $7.4B (up 19.6% YoY) below forecast of $7.5B Saturday - 11/30 - $3.6B (Up 18% YoY) at forecast Sunday - 12/1 - $3.8B Monday - 12/2 - $9.4B (up 19.7% YoY) at forecastDon't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.
Episode 202 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday December 4th, 2019.
http://jasonandscot.com
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
Automated Transcription of the show
TranscriptJason:
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 202 being recorded on December 4th 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo.
Scot:
[0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott your listeners we are in the thick of holiday 2019 and a really excited to have back on the show.
Adobe's and I think this is the first time you fact-check me on that Jason had one of the interns.
Jason:
[0:54] I die I actually had one of the interns send you that number so yes it's right.
Scot:
[0:58] GoodRx pre pre fact check we're getting pretty reliable here at Jason Scott show this year representing Adobe we have Taylor Schreiner he is the director of Adobe Digital insights welcome.
Taylor:
[1:11] Thanks for having guys preciate it.
Jason:
[1:13] We are excited area Taylor and that sort of tradition on the show we always like to give listeners a little bit of background so can you kind of share with us some highlights of your background and and what your role is it Adobe.
Taylor:
[1:25] Sure so I was the 52nd best chess player in Utah and just great and then from there I went into a career in retail.
To work on internet insights about 15 years ago with some of the major internet players across the industry I've been doing that for a decade-and-a-half.
And then about three years ago I found my dream job here Adobe bring W Adobe Digital insights.
We need to tell these amazing stories about how the digital world works and we get to tell people about how Tech and companies in events are taking their digital lives and companies about how the same Trends affecting how they need to run their businesses.
Navigate to Target retail.
Fantastic and amazing data scientist analyst to develop these insights and it lets me have conversations like this one with you guys so it's it's a perfect.
[2:28] Yeah I like to I like to go to my late I like this one.
Scot:
[2:32] I think Jason means being on our podcast he wants an explicit answer on that one.
Taylor:
[2:38] Oh yeah, but let me give you a quotable thing being on the Jason Scott show is a career highlight today.
Scot:
[2:45] Boom.
Taylor:
[2:56] Only recently my 8 year old has started to learn to play chess and he's creeping up on being able to beat me in that is not acceptable so.
[3:13] I'm afraid so.
[3:38] Sure so we build a model of Us online retail sales based on.
Trillions of website visits based on.
Tenzing birthing over hundreds of millions of views Based on data from thousands of different companies all across the u.s. across a variety of device types OS has another information,
every use that to to plan out especially on a day by day and then casely hour-by-hour basis how we think that.
Tattooing going to go so you predict it all and then we go back and we track on a daily and spaghetti sometimes hourly basis how.
Us online retail sales go so it's a big lift and we spend all your getting to this point to be able to talk.
In almost real-time about how how the sales are going.
[4:59] Just the majority of the day that we we've got and this is not including some Seether from the recent Magento Acquisitions that there's a whole other set of data sources as well as,
some of the things we talked about Run Grocery but the core of the data.
That we work with our data from oxygen through companies that have chosen to share data with us that we give them and.
So that shared Data anonymized before we even touch it and aggregated at a very high level so we can talk about these macro-trends but yes that's where the data comes from.
Adobe Analytics.
[5:53] Why wouldn't necessarily say that so we do we do a lot so we have integrated Eliza Magento data it allowed us to look at things like shipping and returns
renew renew sore ankles for us and it's only gives us this amazing view in the back tail set players in terms of e-commerce,
we also use the mark Saturday to only work Saturday that to look at some of our marketing channel information
add cloud with your speech you must go before we use them for some advertising gate around Thanksgiving so we can bring it all the pieces
but you're not all in it so it goes to that Top Line number as you as you say.
[6:55] You too I could spend a whole other podcast and how we do that but it's not do that yes it's cool math would you cool math.
[7:39] Yeah he man said that you said that really well.
Scot:
[7:46] Call Sue now that Jason's extracted his pound of Flesh let's let's jump in at a high level how how would you view holiday 2019 shipping.
Taylor:
[7:59] I think it's been quite strong it has been strong all through today in track,
if you let me I'll give you as of this morning so yesterday's numbers through the 3rd of December we saw 84.7 billion dollars.
Retail sales in the top 14.8%.
Last year for the same. So that's a little faster than our aggregate production but the way that the bottle is trending that out puts us on target to be about 14.1% roughly on our.
Predicted task for for the season and it's 14.1% I mean some listeners and people who visit our website will see the last year was particularly strong.
60% growth year but if you look back a few years since 2016-2017 this is sort of on par with those growth rates but on a much larger base now as we head into the almost a hundred fifty billion dollars.
Incel so it's pretty huge the other tidbit of information I can give listeners about yesterday by giving Tuesday is that it was a 3.3 billion dollar day.
Which is amazing racer and the count 3 billion dollar days the way that when I started in this gig we reach out of 1 billion dollar days so they're coming Fast and Furious only up about 11%.
[9:23] So the question of we are consumers.
Check out these early deals and I won't be sent later or are they just taking a break on Tuesday and get back up today.
Scot:
[9:37] You look let's up so sounds like we're going kind of 14% year-over-year if you,
you kind of look at the shape of the holiday so far I know you can't predict well
I know what it's going to happen to your chores and it is kind of gotten this what I would call a u shape where it's being more front end loaded in back and loaded the front end is people that that have their act together and jump on the deals.
[10:01] At the back end is like Jason I we're like holy cow holiday is here we should do some shopping on the 23rd
does that does that kind of what you've seen and is it getting more pronounced can you tell that you've seen the front part of the curve I saw some data that said like Veterans Day was unusually large and in like,
early November days were large are you guessing.
Taylor:
[10:24] I absolutely so we saw these numbers for this conversation
yeah if you look for the begin movie called The Big Game seasons of the 1st of November roughly right to that once a week that hole is to the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. 15%.
So that's and that was about a point 1/4 faster than we would have predicted that we saw a big lip we shall lift above we would have expected in that early season.
That seems to be attributable to a bunch of earlier deals and we had something similar happened last year but even stronger now we're discounts came earlier in electronics and computers television.
We also saw that.
Your last year Thanksgiving itself was a breakout day where you had the Spy taken suddenly Thanksgiving was growing faster than any other day that spicy just moved back now to Wednesday we wear the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is growing at about 22%.
How to speak again that's attributable to a lot of deals moving forward in time so they're really changes the shape.
The season and we used to be silly tell a story of like look everything and start lifting around. Diver 5 said of days the seven five seven days is getting disproportionate share.
That's still true but we're seeing certified a shift back to earlier sales this year.
[11:49] And it might have to do with the calendar but I think it is actually a broader trend of of thinking about these free holiday sales and free holiday promotions as being think it happened earlier both for retailers and consumers.
[13:25] I think that's that's going to be actually true in this this year in particular with this shift to more buy online pickup in-store.
I can collect behavior and to music store in shipping it's going to it's going to make people.
I think I can wait longer in the season where they can't really wait longer to your point yeah it's just three weeks away before even those things are going to be,
almost too close to Christmas to shop for a trip to to purchase with until.
It's oh so quiet by the way you see jewelry discounts be really strong on like the 20th everybody whose parents realize I haven't gotten anything starts just looking for something nice and blinker to give as a gift.
[14:12] You may have a better hypothesis that I doing that one.
[14:37] Sure so overall. 28 billion dollars,
online purchases over that 10 * 10 + 10,
almost eleven billion dollars of purchases through smartphone overall it was quite strong 18%.
With cheeks.
You been on Black Friday and Cyber Monday which always kind of blows my mind because I get the question every year are these days too big to really grow out grow the rest of the season and I can take it well maybe next year they will be.
And it's not the case people not not only are moving more online but they're really focusing a lot of those purchases the increasing amount on those big days.
Cyber Monday for instance this year with 9.4 billion dollars they're almost going to guarantee the receipt a 10 billion dollar day.
Barney thinking series happening next year on Cyber Monday which is incredible and over a third of that those purchases.
Are really coming on phones so you're seeing people that only
Window Shopper actually make purchases on those big days are on their phones especially I don't switch Cyber Monday when people go sit in front of computers at work but you know people under the table on Thanksgiving
people on Black Friday but couldn't hang out their family but goodbye we're two things anyway that's really been a mobile story.
[16:06] And the Other Stories of the weekend which I always knew you were talking about how buy online pickup in-store.
Is a capability to my drive people to wait a little longer for the big bump in Bocas activity even on that that major weekend,
we got 40% more purchases.
Then we had when we saw last year over the same timeframe tripping over all gross and really pushing.
[16:57] Right.
[17:22] But you haven't gotten there yet how do I take pictures at.
[17:59] No I would agree with that. I think it was always fascinating to me and is a topic of conversation is that everybody,
good internet access at home but we have become so habituated to that day being a major sales today.
At both of the consumer and the retailer side 3 continues to grow the psychology of this off and drives a lot of the behavior even beyond the pricing or the deal's or anything Guitar model might pick up.
Did your point you know if you just looked at the data you might think he is the all going to smooth out a little bit but people continue to it to think about those days as the big days go shopping online and offline.
[18:52] It's a new finding I came up with you.
[19:14] Yeah Super Sunday has a bunch of different cut that it exactly I didn't.
You know there's three and a half almost four billion dollars each.
Year and we would be having a conversation about that particular three billion dollar day but they just come fast and furious between November and Christmas.
Scot:
[19:42] Do you do you have a at the end of the season everyone has a different way to be late free shipping day and then I think it's called you guys.
What is what is last year like was there a bump and is it how does that compare to like Cyber Monday.
Taylor:
[19:58] So we will see ramps toward the end of last year and I don't have the the last little couple days.
It's a hand but they were more there closer to sort of Super Saturday and or even smaller than that in the billion-dollar range as you had in there they're not there last year but your earlier point.
I'm really curious to see if we don't see a big bump coming to the 20th or 19th.
Scot:
[20:23] Yeah this is just kind of came to me so it's if you don't have an answer I understand so it's the last
here we grew 16% this year were growing 14 where do you think that 2% Delta is coming from is it just kind of across-the-board or is it a certain category underperforming have any any thoughts on them.
Taylor:
[20:44] I have some thoughts and I think it'll be really interesting conversation to have in a few weeks but the.
Couple things first of all the models telling us 14 in my gut says there might be more upside risk their than downside.
So back to look at my clothes what seems to be the case so far in the day. Is that there wasn't proportionally even bigger push into the early-season tons of.
Thanksgiving.
Just pushing the season shorter between Thanksgiving and Christmas is about a billion dollars,
which is 50 pieces 50 does basis points or more,
so between a little bit of margin of error and as soon as basis points and and not the Shockers always earlier deals that got everybody accelerated between those three things you can't get to.
The delta.
Scot:
[21:52] So the jury's still out kind of depends on how the models performing and how people react to those missing days.
Taylor:
[21:59] Yeah exactly we get a big Surge and everybody's for just comes off of off of every Monday and things got to go to Sprint store.
Then I'll be very different than everybody feeling like my budget on all those early deal.
Scot:
[22:17] It would be a Jason and Scott show if we didn't talk a little bit about Amazon and I understand if you can't talk specifically about anyone retailer are or what not but any insights into how Amazon's holidays going to take you put out there and you will release that said something like they like we sold hundreds of millions of dollars.
Yes third parties did great so it always the photos Wall Street when they kind of put out these puzzle boxes for them to figure figure out.
Taylor:
[22:44] Yeah g Abrams doing their press releases I can say.
Is would you track the biggest and the smallest against each other,
really looking at especially as you see two big trends are big big big retailers.
Clicking clutch bushing one day shipping having great deals.
And a lot of democratization of e-commerce to bring businesses to the market forces are going on.
The average.
You see big companies are performing tomorrow.
They're up about 87% where is the smaller companies in the 50 million little small ones are up only about 43%.
[23:52] It's some of that it's this coming from the beast from the gate at least a few things one is the largest companies are are much better at mobile conversion the age that better at taking a customer and bring on a phone,
then then smaller companies and consequently they get about 10% more of their share their revenue from those phone.
It was the way the ice I read the data is that if you're a consumer and you are going to a big retailer that big retailer has a number of advantages including.
Promotions generally really good AI at connecting you with those promotion.
And a really specific Speedy checkout process that they they worked on really hard.
And some of them haven't figured out how to how to turn customers into buyers.
[24:46] I did but the last thing I would say this is the most important part of the averages so you know a lot of people trying things out,
I meant what I said and there are within that averaged a huge number of small companies for just blowing the doors off.
It's just that on average they're not doing as well as the it's a big big ones.
[26:15] Oh yeah so where we're seeing you as we said we're.
For the overall Marketplace bookstore buy online pickup in-store Focus.
And was also really interesting as we see that and it has a little bit to do with large versus small but we see that companies that offer both.
Are 20% better at converting than companies that don't offer buffets so people are coming there specifically for that capability or at least find that capability incredibly valuable to them.
It might my thought I messaged her hand but it moved the display window experience in your hand is with the checkout experience in your hand.
And everybody just wants to move that fulfillment that that one thing in between the first 10 minutes. Closer and closer.
And one day shipping is great but sometimes it's just easier if you drive down in about 10 minutes and go pick up the things you keep just saw a new you want it.
[27:24] These guys are yo.
This is good for the brick-and-mortar stores that not only are they making purchases online in the car and getting that.
Pick up they're also going to the store and buying another saying cuz they thought of it I'm driving at 4.
Scot:
[27:46] Freckle
if you sit on this a little bit but let's talk about mobile so you guys when I talk about mobile at 10 to take tablet out and it seems like you do too
you seem to be especially calling out smartphone so so you mentioned I think I can't remember was it Black Friday you said it was a third of the sales came from Mobile to any other account insights on on the mobile site.
Taylor:
[28:12] Sure you point we tried we tried.
Prior years to be really disciplined about mobile vs smartphone we've been a little axe this year cuz chocolates are decreasing share so smart.
1/3 threshold on major days in terms of dollars spent it was always.
Has been through the past couple years the majority of visits or coming from phone so people are doing anything in there shopping,
Empire years and still do now that they were closing the deal,
either or not at all or going to the desktops with purchase,
in fact on Christmas this year we expect to have the first day in the US where the majority of online purchases actually come through a phone.
As you aren't going to their computers and their families around there.
But the things that are driving us at least in the data that we see are two really interesting related point when is that.
Time per visit is going down rapidly so they're not messing around looking for an expecting,
the product the day that they came for at least a product to buy,
and some of that is going to be in part because you've gotten faster screens got bigger processes are faster but also retailers have gotten much better at streamline that process.
On the mobile phone and consequently.
[29:41] The amount of money that people are spending per minute or per second on a mobile phone is continues to Skyrocket month after month year after year and she will just get faster at making those purchases with a lot of the new,
check out options that make make it easier than typing.
[30:39] I think large companies get it has to do with the broad.
Obviously has focused on this figured out they can track per second per user per region per item how much time
consumers are willing to tolerate and they can see those things down if nothing else would buy just bring more machines online.
Small businesses don't always have that.
Ability but that the platforms he has the whole process,
from visit to fulfillment in Union Market Channel streamlined especially for small businesses.
[31:28] With think about that really been focused on and what their consumers experience needs to be.
[32:18] So are you I'll be honest with you were really good about figure out the revenue were really good about three of prices we we are generally missing that third piece of costs that allows you to talk about profitability.
But I'll tell you what I was thinking about this this morning and last night and look at a bunch a bunch of different angles in our data and.
So we did if you asked me to sit for a week or so ago or you going to I would have said looked the discount seem to be moving forward especially in electronics.
Intro you'll maybe the new maybe the profit margins are swimming but then you start to look at toys and toys bottom out quickly,
what's the Toys R Us processor with through the toy discount didn't go as deep this year as they did last year and receive something from since we what did appliances appliances discount,
exactly how that the profit margins are going to go hard to say but the revenue looks.
[33:21] Really strong so I think the jury is a bit but I don't see a year where we like have.
Massively keeper discounts than the last time we just have them earlier and I'm particular products.
[34:18] So we don't get to look at overall investment in advertising that can be a fairly complicated things at 2 to look into but we have like a performance and individual your ad level,
pricing it was interesting as we definitely see if you're if you're advertising video but also on display or search you're going to see costs go up.
[34:40] A bit as everybody serve Kors online and once it once you acquire customers about 23% higher CPM.
But when we look at performance metrics those go up by even greater amount.
So you or email efficacy goes up,
quite a bit over that that same time frame so we should we haven't reached a point of.
Diminishing returns,
and I think there's a lot of opportunity for customer acquisition their advertisers and marketers have figured that out and bring the money in now when it's most productive.
[36:05] Thank you guys so much really appreciate the opportunity.
Scot:
[36:13] Thanks Taylor
Jason:
Happy Commercing.
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