Lead Story: Reducing Opioid Use Disorder and Overdose Deaths in the United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis

Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis  

Science Advances

Since 1999, nearly 650,000 Americans have died of an opioid overdose. More than half of these deaths have occurred since 2016 due to increasing misuse of prescription opioids, followed by heroin, and now synthetic opioids such as illicitly manufactured fentanyl. This study used a system dynamics simulation model of the US opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. 

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