Catch 22 for the FOMC: market leans for a hike, but...
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3TDgNtk -
Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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