Exploring liquidity dynamics that may supercharge the Fed’s tightening efforts during the summer…

With the debt ceiling resolution behind us, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, returns to recap what feels like a market that is in a holding pattern until the passage of the CPI print and the FOMC meeting. He also discusses the medium-term risks with a keen focus on liquidity dynamics. The Treasury will be replenishing its General Account (TGA), which sits on the Fed's liability side of the balance-sheet via raising cash from T-bill issuance. At a minimum, this will likely result in a crowding out effect and at a maximum level, drain market liquidity. Given some areas of the banking system remain fragile and in need of funding, it’s critical to watch how this plays out over the summer. With QT ongoing and the Fed aiming to keep rates higher for longer, this liquidity story can supercharge the Fed’s tightening efforts ahead.