Thoughts on the Feb inflation data, the Fed, and US rates markets

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting beginning in June. Accordingly, we revise higher our Treasury yield forecasts for the balance of the year.

 

Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy 
Michael Feroli,  Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
 
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