Bitcoin Halving 2024: Why the Stock-to-Flow S2F Model Will Break This Cycle

It's April 19, 2024: Bitcoin's 4th Halving is happening today! The block reward, doled out every 10 minutes, will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.

That translates into an inflation rate of only 0.85%, far less than gold or any other currency.

From now until 2140, the inflation rate will slowly decrease to zero.

This explains why Bitcoin has appreciated against inflating currencies over several years —and that it will continue since governments will always recklessly print money.

Watch the YouTube Video to See the Charts

It's easier to follow along.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGBgo6ImfpY

In this episode, we celebrate the BTC Halving by reviewing Plan B's stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which I first critiqued at the previous halving in 2020. Back then, I predicted that the model would break in 2024 and beyond.

Because the article and video were so viral, I've been reviewing the model's state annually. 

This update is extra special because it's the 2024 Halving.

Watch the 9-minute video below to see why I still believe what I said in 2020: that the stock-to-flow model will begin to crack this year.

As I explained in the video, the divergence between the two most recent models and reality is already happening.

Only the original and most conservative S2F model remains viable. But in 2025 and definitely by 2026, you'll see that model will become as useless as the last two S2F models.  

See my 2023 update.

 

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