Energy, naturally

Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year including the resilience of the US economy, the implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. The steep climb in global bond yields that’s unfolded over recent weeks additionally suggests that inflation concerns and debt sustainability issues have re-surfaced as well. In our charts this week we focus on:

·         US yields and growth surprises

·         Natural gas prices and US inflation

·         Consensus forecasts for policy rates

·         Euro area inflation and wage pressures

·         The US dollar and energy trade

·         Energy trade in selected major economies